On February 8, 2024, the Somali government announced the signing of a defense agreement with Turkey that includes the support of the maritime assets of the country located at the Horn of Africa, at a time when the Ethiopian threat to Somalia is growing, following the signing of an agreement with Somaliland to build a naval base in the country that has been calling for secession for years. Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Berri described the defense agreement with Turkey as a “historic day for the country” after it was approved by the Council of Ministers, and said: “Somalia will have a true ally, friend and brother in the international arena.“ This agreement was not the first, as relations between Turkey and Somalia have witnessed significant development over the past years: Turkey has built schools, hospitals and infrastructure, and in 2017, it opened its largest military base abroad in Mogadishu, and Turkey’s desire to be present inside the African country began with the AKP taking power in Turkey in 2002.
Turkey has always sought to emphasize the usefulness of its actions towards Somalia since 2002. In 2011, it held another conference in Istanbul to support bilateral relations and tried to solve the problem of famine in Somalia, at a time when the Arab countries were preoccupied with the changes of revolutions and huge political movements after the Arab Spring, and the Turkish political leadership was not limited to these conferences to indicate its declared interest in Somalia. In August 2011, then Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan made his visit to Somalia, the first of a Turkish official of this level in 20 years. The Turkish presence also witnessed a significant growth in terms of Turkish investment and projects in Somalia, including infrastructure, schools, hospitals and other major projects, while the exchange volume between the two countries increased by 115 million USD by the end of 2018.
The agreement with Somalia and Turkey followed the signing by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed last January of a memorandum of understanding with the President of Somaliland, Musa Bihi Abdi. Abdi said during the ceremony that Somaliland plans – as part of the agreement – to lease a 20-kilometer piece of land along its coast to Ethiopia for the establishment of a naval base. Abiy Ahmed’s office said in a statement that the agreement strengthens the security, economic and political partnership between Ethiopia and Somaliland. He added that the agreement includes Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland as an independent state in the near future. “Ethiopia knows very well that it cannot sign a military agreement or a memorandum of understanding to lease a port in Somaliland. This delegation is the prerogative of the federal government of the Republic of Somalia”.
Somaliland broke away from the state of Somalia more than 30 years ago, but the African Union and the United Nations have not recognized it as an independent state. The Somali government still considers it part of its territory, and reacted to the newly signed agreement quickly.
The new agreement between Turkey and Somalia, and the previous one between Ethiopia and Somaliland, caused many questions about the possibility of flare-up of the situation at the Horn of Africa, between Turkey and Ethiopia, and the possibility of a major confrontation between the two forces at this time.
It is clear from this agreement that Turkey wants to strengthen military and defense cooperation with Somalia, as Ankara sees Mogadishu as an important partner in Africa, as the contract paves the way by guaranteeing trainings of Somali forces, providing the necessary military support to them with equipment, etc., the development and reconstruction of the country and the provision of humanitarian assistance, as Turkey is trying to exploit Somalia’s location on the Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the movement of trade in this region to its advantage and strengthen Ankara’s position on the African continent. Turkey relies on Somalia to provide oil after signing an agreement with it in 2020 for gas exploration.
If we ignore the rhetoric of intervention for the sake of “religious brotherhood” that Turkish President Erdogan has enshrined in the minds of Somalis, Somalia represents in Turkey’s strategic calculations a key gateway to the sub-Saharan African region, part of the “strategy to strengthen economic and trade relations with Africa” that was first adopted after the AKP came to power in 2003 and later crystallized in 2005 in the „Opening to Africa” initiative. Trade between Turkey and Africa recorded a jump from 5.4 billion USD in 2003 to 25.3 billion by 2020. In this direction, and in a step that embodies this vision, Erdogan, on a subsequent visit to Somalia in May 2016, opened the largest Turkish embassy abroad in the Somali capital Mogadishu. Turkey has trained about 15 to 16,000 Somali soldiers, about a third of the Somali army. In addition to the fact that the arming of the Somali military is benefiting the Turkish industry, such as military combat vehicles, anti-mine and ambush vehicles, assault rifles and tanks, the most dangerous thing in the Turkish military strategy in building the Somali army is that Somali officers receive training in Turkish, take the military oath in Turkish next to the native language, and commemorate the soldiers who fell in the Gallipoli campaign at their graduation ceremony.
Despite all the above, however, there are several possible repercussions as a result of the signing of the recent agreement by Turkey and Somalia, the most important of which is the possibility of a direct confrontation between Turkey and Ethiopia as a result of different interests at this time. It will also lead to tensions in relations that were going through their best periods, especially in the field of military cooperation. This agreement can also enhance Turkey’s presence between Arab countries, especially Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, with the clear position of some of these countries in rejecting the Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement, at a time when Turkey began to return to the arms of Arab countries, headed by Egypt, after many years of separation between this country, while Mogadishu will be exploited Turkey’s support for its position in resorting to the international community in order to reject any attempts to approve the Somaliland-Ethiopia agreement. This coincides with the position of the African Union, the Arab League, the United Nations and the majority of countries as well, and this agreement can also help in re-strengthening the Somali army at a time when it is facing terrorist organizations and flaming borders besides what is happening at the moment from Somaliland.
It is clear from the above that Ethiopian attempts to find a route on the coast may find it very difficult to reach it through Somaliland because of the very strong position it faces from the countries in the region, ending with Turkey standing by Somalia at the moment.
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