With the opposition being winner in the local elections in Turkey, the governing alliance in the country is under much pressure now.
Once again, the Kurds emerged as a significant factor in the local elections, as they always have in every election. Kurds constitute a “solid bloc” that plays a decisive role in shaping Turkish politics, comprising between 15 to 20 percent of the total population of 85 million people. Major parties strive to build alliances with them before each election, often requiring concessions to secure their votes. As alliances have shifted, leading in 2019 to the victory of the CHP in the municipalities of Ankara and Istanbul after decades of dominance by parties with Islamic roots, major parties now compete for Kurdish votes.
Despite the Kurdish party DEM, founded as a successor of the HDP party, which was dissolved by Erdogan’s system, fielding candidates in various municipalities, including Ankara and Istanbul, the reality suggests that the Kurdish vote bloc is not entirely guaranteed for this party due to the diverse inclinations of Kurdish voters. This means that these votes could be distributed among the Republican People’s Party and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) as well. Long informal negotiations in the months preceding the elections between the opposition bloc failed to reach coordination. The Kurdish party chose to go its own way, fielding candidates in major cities alongside its main strongholds in the east and southeast of the country, potentially leading to the Republican People’s Party losing a significant portion of Kurdish votes in Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir, despite its long-standing efforts to win them. Erdoğan acknowledges this reality but during the local election campaign, he was keen to level sharp criticism and accusations against the Republican People’s Party and the Kurdish party of covert coordination, accusing them of adopting the agenda of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, classified as a terrorist organization. Meral Danış Beştaş, DEM’s candidate for Istanbul’s mayoralty, ruled out the idea of tactical voting based on undisclosed alliances, stating in a television interview, „our call is for people to vote for us… I believe every party has a fundamental duty in managing its own policies.”
These elections have not only impacted the domestic Turkish landscape but have also extended beyond its borders, as a demonstration by pro-Kurdish activists carrying flags of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party turned into clashes in the European district of Brussels. Police had to use water cannons to disperse the protesters who were disrupting traffic and chanting “Erdoğan murderer” in reference to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Media reports indicated that these activists had intended to protest following the violence that occurred in the Limburg province, where a Syrian Kurdish family was violently attacked by Turkish nationalist extremists. Subsequently, the Kurdish Communities Council in Belgium, NavBel, condemned the “barbaric attack” attributed to the “Grey Wolves” groups, an extremist Turkish nationalist movement. The Kurdish organization also called for calm.
Meanwhile, retaliatory actions against Turks targeted a café in Vise, near Liege. Belgian media reported that several individuals were injured when individuals wielding baseball bats stormed the café. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo called for calm after a series of violent incidents between the Turkish and Kurdish communities in Belgium. De Croo stated, “Let’s stop the violence, these provocations, and these expressions of support for terrorist organizations,” referring to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party classified as a “terrorist” organization by Turkey and the European Union.
Moreover, these elections hold significant importance following Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s announcement that these elections would be his last in office. Experts believe that Erdoğan’s statements are primarily due to constitutional limitations, as he “will not be able to run for the next presidential elections after four years.” Additionally, if he decides to run again at the end of his current presidential term, his age would reach 80, rendering him ineligible both in terms of age and constitutional restrictions. Erdoğan’s term ends in four years, precisely in 2028, when he would be 74 years old. The Turkish constitution allows a person to run for two consecutive presidential terms, each lasting five years, making Erdoğan eligible to run again in 2033, when he would be 79 years old.
During his electoral campaign in April last year, Erdoğan suffered a health setback, with then-Health Minister Fahrettin Koca announcing that he was suffering from inflammation of the stomach and intestines. Erdoğan’s health was a topic of much discussion in Turkish circles, especially after he abruptly ended a televised interview, citing discomfort due to stomach upset. On October 29, 2021, a video circulated showing Erdoğan walking with difficulty on social media, but the Turkish presidency quickly released a counter video showing him playing basketball.
However, the insistence of the government and the ruling party on the need to “draft and enact a new constitution” faces opposition on the opposite bank, as opposition parties reject the step, criticizing it for several reasons, including the government’s “failure to adhere to the current constitution fundamentally,” amid fears that all the talk is “for electoral purposes.”
Furthermore, the local elections were planned to help Erdoğan deciding whether he can afford to start ignoring his challengers at this stage. In the parliamentary and presidential elections held last May, Erdoğan defeated the opposition, a coalition of six parties spanning the political spectrum, including the main opposition CHP. This victory solidified his position at the top of the power hierarchy in Turkey, and defeating the opposition again in the local elections, he wanted to conclude that there are no legitimate challengers left for him. This could have allowed him to enter a phase of building his political legacy, resolving domestic issues while playing a larger role internationally in foreign policy. However, after the president’s candidates failed to seize Istanbul and other major cities from the opposition, Erdoğan emerged from these elections feeling politically weakened.
All publishing rights and copyrights reserved to MENA Research Center.
