The question of the extent to which the terrorist organization Hamas has support from the Palestinian population is often discussed. Hamas’s popularity appears to have increased as a result of the war. At least this is what a survey suggests that the German Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS) conducted in collaboration with the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip at the end of last year.
According to the survey, a majority of people said Hamas’s decision to invade Israel on October 7 was the right one (82 percent in the West Bank, compared to just 57 percent in the Gaza Strip). However, the opinion is full of contradictions. When asked which party received the most support, 44 percent in the West Bank chose Hamas. This means that the value has increased threefold (in September it was twelve percent), while in the Gaza Strip the values grew moderately from 38 to 42 percent. And only 38 percent in Gaza believe that Hamas should rule the Gaza Strip after the end of the war, while 75 percent in the West Bank support continued Hamas rule.
The head of the PSR and co-author of the study puts the results into perspective: “The support for Hamas during the war comes from the same people who share its values, but also from those who now firmly believe that the Palestinians are taking revenge and “We need to use force against the Israelis, and they see that only Hamas is capable of doing that.” If there was a political alternative to Hamas and better governance, support for Hamas would drop to below 30 percent, he believes.
This skepticism is made clear in a survey by the American magazine “Foreign Affairs”. The Arab Barometers show that frustration in Gaza was high before the terrorist attack on Israel. At that time, 44 percent of respondents had “no trust at all” in Hamas’s governance and another 23 percent had “not much trust.” A clear majority said there was a high (34 percent) or medium (38 percent) level of corruption in Hamas-run institutions. Only a minority believed that Hamas was taking meaningful steps to resolve the problem.
In the summer of 2023, there were protests and gatherings against Hamas, which were suppressed with police violence. This shows a dilemma that Hamas finds itself in. On the one hand, she wants to wage a resistance struggle against Israel, but on the other hand, she has to govern the Gaza Strip. The Islamists have always been ambivalent in this regard, says Islamism expert Tareq Baconi. They viewed governing as “a burden, something that tied down the resistance movement and limited its ability to act,” he told the New York Times. In his book “Hamas Contained,” Baconi writes that Hamas is a “multifaceted organization involved in political, social and military activities,” meaning it is an “actor with a multitude of internal tensions” that must constantly be balanced. Because Hamas is a terrorist organization, but at the same time a political party and movement that has to provide social infrastructure such as schools, hospitals, police and salaries.
This ambivalence is also noticeable in the surveys. The timing of the polls is arguably crucial: support for Hamas typically rises during or immediately after a war. A few months after the end of the war, the values usually fall back to the previous level, i.e. to values between 35 and 40 percent. The Middle East expert at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Ramallah, Steven Höfner, explains the historical patterns of such surveys: Sympathies for Hamas often decline again after the devastating effects on the Palestinian civilian population. “In all phases of the conflict where Palestinians have used violence, they have paid very heavily in the end. So far, this has repeatedly caused a downturn,” says Höfner.
Many Palestinians are frustrated, angry and desperate about the catastrophic situation in Gaza. And there is broad support among them for Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, which left around 1,200 dead. The majority of respondents even believe that Hamas has not committed atrocities against Israeli civilians. PSR says that supporting October 7 does not mean that Palestinians support the atrocities committed by Hamas militants during that offensive. On the contrary, the overwhelming majority of Palestinians believe that attacks on civilians in their homes or the kidnapping of civilians as hostages are not permitted under international law. However, these Palestinians simply do not believe that Hamas did this. The view that the reports are “fake news” has long since become established.
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