Many indicators have revealed an increasing convergence between Tunisia and Russia, coinciding with escalating tensions between Kais Saied and some European countries, alongside the United States, due to the manner in which he seized power. From Russia’s perspective, Tunisia is among the countries targeted by the Kremlin’s expanding influence in Africa. Consequently, Moscow has bolstered its generous support for Tunisia, whether economically or militarily.
In a report published by the Italian newspaper „L’Espresso“, writer Paolo Mastrolelli stated that a spokesperson for the US State Department confirmed to the newspaper one of the Italian government’s main concerns, namely, the presence of Russian military penetration in Tunisia. Mastrolelli further explained that this adds to the geopolitical maneuvers already being conducted by the Kremlin in Libya, Algeria, and the Sahel region, completing a complex maneuver aimed at enhancing influence in the area. He noted that aircraft had been seen landing in the Djerba airport in Tunisia in recent days, near the border with Libya. The nature of this activity has not yet been clarified, according to „L’Espresso“. The journalist emphasized that the nature of these activities remains unclear, but the concerns they raise are significant. He explained that Moscow already has a strong presence in Libya, formed an alliance with Algeria, succeeded in replacing its forces with US military support in Niger and Chad, while the French left Mali and Burkina Faso. Establishing a presence in Tunisia would complete the „penetration“ of the entire region.
He confirmed that, for Italy, this is a direct problem, as Tunisia is closest to the Italian coast, from where irregular migrant boats depart for Sicily. Prime Minister Georgia Meloni has made significant personal efforts to prevent this drift, having visited the country four times and signed agreements with President Kais Saied. „L’Espresso“ clarified that it requested a statement from the US State Department regarding its position on Russian flights to Tunisia and the extent of its knowledge about them. The US State Department responded, stating, „we remain concerned about Wagner Group activities and those supported by Russia in the African continent, which fuel conflicts and encourage irregular migration, including to Tunisia.“ The State Department reiterated its concern about the resumption of previous Wagner activities following the death of its founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin. According to the Italian newspaper, this „Russian penetration“ has ramifications for Italian domestic politics ahead of European elections, where Meloni was very firm in defending Ukraine, while her ally Salvini is open to Putin. The writer affirmed that both parties have taken a tough stance on immigration, but the situation will become difficult for both if the Kremlin continues to incite irregular migration flows towards Italy and Europe.
Meanwhile, Tunisia and Russia recently signed an agreement for cooperation in the electoral field. After Tunisia participated in monitoring the Russian presidential elections held in March last year, won by President Vladimir Putin, it is expected that a Russian mission will participate in monitoring the presidential elections in Tunisia, the date of which has not yet been determined. This comes as demands within Tunisian political circles have recently surfaced for joining the economic alliance of “BRICS,” which used to include Russia, China, South Africa, Brazil, and India. Russia does not hide its efforts to strengthen its rapprochement with Tunisia to encompass various fields, including food, education, modern technology, and more, as confirmed by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during his visit to Tunisia at the end of December 2023. Additionally, Lavrov reiterated in December 2023 during a „working visit“ to Tunisia that Russia is „ready“ to deliver additional quantities of grains to the African country, which will need to import almost all of its needs this year due to severe drought. Russian media accompanying Lavrov quoted him as saying, „there is interest in increasing our grain quantities. We are ready to do so“, according to the French news agency. Lavrov, who mentioned discussing the matter with Tunisian President Kais Saied, reminded that Russia has benefited „for the second or third consecutive year“ from good harvests. After four years of water stress and a disastrous harvest season in 2023, Tunisia will need to import all of its wheat and barley needs until spring 2024. However, the debt-laden country lacks the liquidity to finance these imports, leading to a regular shortage of flour.
The discussion within Tunisia about shifting towards Russia may be a maneuver and a message indicating that the country has alternatives. However, in reality, it would be challenging to initiate such a shift now, given Tunisia’s difficult circumstances. Changing direction towards the east and seeking Russian and Chinese support would be difficult due to Tunisia’s lack of the luxury of time to wait for negotiations with the Russian side to deepen relations between the two countries.
The hypothesis of betting on Russia gained traction after the phone call between Tunisian Foreign Minister Nabil Ammar and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in April 2024 amidst the diplomatic movement in the Mediterranean seeking urgent support for Tunisia to help it confront its crisis. This movement is led by Italy, which fears an emergency situation that would exacerbate the complexities of the refugee crisis. However, achieving this is difficult at the moment. Russia is aware that it has previously injected billions of dollars to support an allied government, and its foreign relations are based on security and military cooperation with allies in a situation similar to Tunisia’s, or on agreements for oil exports, nothing more.
Dealing with Russia poses an additional dilemma, especially given US sanctions on the Russian Wagner Group and accusations against Russia of reasserting its influence in Africa in challenge to traditional spheres of influence on the continent, especially those of the United States and France, both of which are security and military allies of Tunisia. However, Russia might turn to neighboring Algeria to support its position with Tunisia, making it an ally against the Western camp. Nevertheless, this possibility remains distant as Tunisia has strong economic and security cooperation with the American and French sides, posing a threat to any strong alliance or economic cooperation with Russia.
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