The de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia likes to present himself as a reformer and modernizer of his kingdom. He has made Saudi Arabia a top destination for superlative conferences, and with his Neom project he wants to show the world how much innovative power lies in the sand of the Arabian Peninsula. Every few months the Crown Prince invites people to a new meeting – and the so-called “movers and shakers”, as the important people from politics and business are called in conference parlance, fly to Riyadh from all over the world. It is no different at the World Economic Forum (WEF), an offshoot of the summit in Davos, which was hosted in Riyadh for the first time.
Bin Salman has a problem, however: his visions, his gold rush mentality, which he was previously able to successfully convey to the world, are no longer bearing fruit. As always, things like artificial intelligence and the future of energy are being discussed. And of course also about Neom, the futuristic giant metropolis that bin Salman wants to build in the desert. Because the dominant topic in the conference rooms and executive lounges, which are gleaming with gold, is not the dream city of Neom – but the nightmare of Gaza. The war in the coastal strip, which began with the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7th and has since left tens of thousands dead and injured, threatens to drag more than just the Middle East into the abyss.
It poses major problems for Saudi Arabia. In the new Middle East that bin Salman is so fond of raving about, crises and wars should actually be a thing of the past. The Saudi crown prince has been relying on regional cooperation and stability for years in order to turn his oil kingdom into a modern, globally networked service economy. But instead of being a visionary, he now has to act as a crisis manager.
The suffering of the Palestinians in Gaza is hardly a topic in public, but Arab participants at the WEF are saying more and more clearly that emotions ran high when they saw the images from the destroyed coastal strip. Unlike other Arab heads of state, bin Salman does not have to fear the people’s anger. Nevertheless, the Gaza war has put him in an awkward position, because his country, which watches over the holy sites of Islam, cannot stand on the sidelines while the Middle East is going through what is probably the worst crisis in decades. At the same time, despite all the deaths in Gaza, the crown prince does not want to give up on the rapprochement with Israel that he was working towards before October 7. He now has to reconcile these different interests.
MBS therefore held background talks and organized a Gaza conference. Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan sharply condemned Israel – only to assure shortly afterwards that his country was still interested in normalization. However, he made an end to the Gaza war and a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders a condition. However, Saudi Arabia does not have many means of influencing the parties to the conflict. Unlike its small neighbors Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, it has no relations with Israel or Hamas.
The Saudis are similarly cautious when it comes to a possible post-war order in Gaza. The rich kingdom, which sees itself as the leading power of the Arabs, should actually play a major role. But bin Farhan blocked it, saying it was too early to talk about it. His counterpart Ayman Safadi from Jordan explained why: “We don’t know what Israel is planning in Gaza,” he said. They definitely don’t want to be seen as accomplices of the occupying power. Influential Saudi managers also don’t know how to deal with the situation: “You’re asking me what role we can play?” asks a well-known commentator and head of the newspaper “Arab News”. “Please name me any other country in the Middle East that has managed to get almost all Arab states to agree on a common position!”
Reticence does not fit with the boundless self-confidence with which the Saudis have recently appeared. They like to explain to European visitors that times have changed and the Gulf states now have a completely independent foreign policy. But after years in which Riyadh was able to play a confident role in world politics thanks to the Ukraine war and high oil prices, the Gaza war has now shattered some illusions. Bin Salman, who is so proud of his strategic autonomy, has had to recognize that, despite all the talk of a multipolar world order, he is still dependent on the US. Not only can no one other than Washington influence Israel and thus make the dream of a new Middle East a reality, but America’s military remains more important for security in the Gulf than many in Riyadh are willing to admit.
It was only thanks to the help of Washington and other allies that the Israelis managed to fend off a massive drone and missile attack from Iran a few weeks ago with almost no damage. The successful air battle made a strong impression on Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf states, which fear Tehran more than Israel.
For this reason, the elite in Riyadh is sending signals to the West that they would not be averse to a strategic alliance with Israel and the US. The crown prince knows, however, that there is no PR to be gained from this at the moment. He, who normally likes to bask in the spotlight, prefers to remain silent at the moment.
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