The participation in the by-elections for the Iranian parliament was so low that the government did not even release the relevant figures. The newspaper “Farhikhtegan” reported, citing unofficial information from the Interior Ministry, that only eight percent of eligible voters in the capital Tehran had cast their votes. In the first round of voting in March, 41 percent had participated nationwide according to official reports. This was already the lowest turnout since the founding of the Islamic Republic. Nevertheless, state media praised the “glorious participation” after the results were announced.
The by-election decided the last 45 of the 290 parliamentary seats. In Iran, parties are not elected, but individuals are. There are no fixed coalitions, but shifting majorities and affiliations to various groups. Thus, a precise classification of the deputies is difficult. According to an analysis by the news agency AP, 233 of the 290 deputies now belong to the hardliner camp. This is because most moderate and reform-oriented candidates were disqualified in advance by the Guardian Council. A day before the by-election, an audio recording was released in which former President Mohammad Khatami, for the first time, called for a boycott of the elections. He is one of the leading voices of the reformists. “Let us stand on the side of the people and say that we will not participate in the elections as long as the Guardian Council exists,” Khatami reportedly said. The reformists had begged the Guardian Council in vain to grant them three seats in parliament.
Since parties are not elected, the debate in Iran focuses on which politicians received the most votes. The ranking is led by three radical deputies from the ultraconservative Stability Front (Paydari Front), which won around a hundred seats. This group includes the harshest critics of the 2015 nuclear deal. They view moderates as traitors and military restraint as a sign of weakness. In the dispute over the mandatory headscarf, they advocate a hard line, while more pragmatic forces warn against further escalating tensions within the population. Ideologically, the Stability Front follows the school of thought of the late Ayatollah Taqi Mesbah Yazdi, who died in 2021. The elections reflect a fundamental power shift: The government has filled key positions with representatives of the Front. Young religious hardliners have also recently gained influence within the Revolutionary Guard.
Since moderates and reformists have been ousted from all levers of power, the power struggle within the hardliner camp has intensified, particularly in anticipation of a political upheaval following the eventual passing of the 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Traditional conservatives such as the former parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and his supporters performed worse than expected. It remains to be seen, even after the death of President Raisi, whether the radicals will succeed in claiming the speaker’s post. The position is important because the speaker is also a member of the Supreme National Security Council.
The rise of ideologues in parliament coincides with a shift in Iran’s foreign and security policy. “Iran’s era of strategic patience is over,” recently wrote Mohammad Jamshidi, the deputy chief of staff of the president. Until a month ago, Iran had not directly retaliated against the killing of nuclear scientists and Revolutionary Guards by Israel but had positioned the militias of the so-called “Axis of Resistance” against Israel. Khamenei called this “strategic patience.” But in April, Iran directly attacked Israel for the first time. The head of the Revolutionary Guard, Hossein Salami, subsequently spoke of a “new equation” in the deterrence competition with Israel.
Tehran is also adopting a new tone in nuclear policy. Ahmad Haqtalab, the commander responsible for protecting nuclear facilities, stated that Iran might reconsider its nuclear doctrine if Israel threatens to attack Iranian nuclear facilities. This position was reinforced by Kamal Kharrazi, head of the think tank Strategic Foreign Relations Council, which advises Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran has “no choice” but to change its doctrine if Israel threatens its existence, Kharrazi said.
Previously, Iran had always denied seeking nuclear weapons, citing a fatwa by Khamenei, which declared weapons of mass destruction “haram.” The country had used its maneuvering at the brink of acquiring a bomb as leverage in unofficial negotiations with the U.S. for sanctions relief. Apparently with success: In the first three months of the year, Iran was able to export as much oil as it had since 2018, despite sanctions, primarily to China. However, the calculation in Tehran may have changed. Experts say that Iran, feeling weakened by the recent confrontation with Israel, might resort to pursuing a bomb to bolster its deterrence. The hotheads in parliament, who have little say on this issue, are already a step ahead. The re-elected deputy Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani recently claimed in an interview that Iran is already a nuclear power.
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