At least 12 civilians, including two children, were killed in Turkish airstrikes targeting areas under Kurdish self-administration control in northern and eastern Syria, according to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Mazloum Abdi, the leader of the SDF, stated, “Turkey is bombarding our areas indiscriminately without justification, targeting service centers, healthcare facilities, and civilians. This is a real war crime.” In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Thursday morning, Abdi said, “We have repeatedly expressed our readiness for dialogue, but we reaffirm that our forces are prepared to defend our people and land.”
Meanwhile, the Turkish Ministry of Defense announced that its forces bombed “32 targets” belonging to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its allies in northern Iraq and Syria in response to the attack. The ministry stated, “In accordance with our right to self-defense under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, an air operation was conducted against terrorist targets in northern Iraq and Syria on October 23, 2024, and a total of 32 terrorist targets were successfully destroyed.” The ministry also indicated that these “air operations are ongoing.”
Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya stated that several people were killed and injured in a “terrorist attack” targeting Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAŞ) in the capital, Ankara. Later, Yerlikaya confirmed that “two terrorists were neutralized,” without specifying whether they were captured, killed, or if there were other attackers. He explained that it is highly likely that the perpetrators belonged to the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). He added, “The method used strongly suggests that the PKK is behind the attack. Once the identities of the attackers are confirmed and other evidence is verified, we will announce more confirmed information.”
A pro-PKK parliament member and relative of Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the party in Turkey, indicated that Öcalan might be open to starting peace talks with the Turkish government, which could add momentum to potential efforts to end the long-standing conflict. Öcalan’s nephew, Ömer Öcalan, a member of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), quoted him as saying, “If the conditions are favorable, I have the theoretical and practical power to shift this process from the level of conflict and violence to the political and legal level.” Ankara, the European Union, and the United States classify the PKK as a “terrorist organization.” Öcalan has been imprisoned on an island off Istanbul since 1999. He was allowed visitors for the first time in years this week, and his nephew wrote on X that he is in good health after visiting him in Imrali prison. Observers view these statements as a potential signal for the start of a new peace process between the Turkish state and the PKK, which have been in conflict since the early 1980s.
Alongside security failures, there are also economic failures. The Turkish regime has clearly taken an authoritarian path, contributing to the flight of foreign investors who have also avoided emerging markets due to their weak ability to withstand the effects of global disasters like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war. These investors have been sellers only for five years since the beginning of 2018, according to central bank data. As Turkey’s economy lost its appeal, Erdogan’s popularity began to decline. The most recent expression of public dissatisfaction came in the municipal elections, which saw the first defeat of the AKP to the main opposition party, the “Republican People’s Party,” in April.
The non-classical monetary policy aimed primarily at avoiding raising borrowing costs and maintaining high growth rates. While this goal was largely achieved, as the Turkish economy grew by 4.5% in 2023 despite the devastating earthquake in February of the same year, it came at the expense of the lira, which lost nearly half its value over five years, leading to record inflation levels. The devalued currency, which began its decline in 2018 due to strained relations between Turkey and the U.S., negatively impacted Turkey’s ability to absorb external shocks and caused millions to suffer from a high cost of living.
Erdogan continues his repressive policies by making changes in military leadership and cracking down on the opposition, even banning social media platforms, as was the case with Instagram. He said, “At this stage, social media companies are acting like a mafia in everything that touches their interests. We are facing digital fascism that cannot even tolerate images of Palestinian martyrs and immediately bans them, marketing this as freedom.” He added, “Global politics is going through one of its toughest phases. There is a dangerous power vacuum in the international system, and we are facing a loss of morality and conscience.”
It can be said that the Turkish president is exerting his full efforts to revive radical policies in confronting the opposition, curbing their opportunities in the public sphere, and gaining political and electoral chances, making him feel the weight of defeat, as happened in the municipal elections. Facing the bitterness of defeat seems inevitable amidst the crises and successive failures of the AKP during its rule, leading to conflicts with its geopolitical surroundings and neighboring countries, even as Erdogan seeks to open up to some of them and hastily pursue reconciliations and normalization. However, the persistence of contradictions in contentious issues suggests that the conflict may resurface, and the current calm seems temporary, aimed at building tactical relationships on economic and commercial levels, as seen with Egypt and the UAE. Erdogan’s attempts at conciliation with the opposition, coinciding with his external moves to normalize relations with Egypt and previously the UAE, and his outreach to the Damascus government, appear to yield similar results, as they remain in the experimental phase and are not serious enough to signal changes in political practice. The consensus is built on shaky grounds and is likely a temporary maneuver, which may soon be overturned.
