Cyprus, the easternmost member state of the EU, finds itself in a very complicated neighborhood. The government in Nicosia has had no official relations with Turkey in the north since Turkish troops invaded fifty years ago and the island remains divided to this day. To the east, it is less than 200 kilometers to the chronically unstable Lebanon. The civil war-torn country of Syria is only 100 kilometers from the coast of the Turkish-occupied north of the island. At least geographically, Cyprus is part of a crisis region. So far, this has had little impact on the sense of security of its inhabitants. However, this could change. The conflict in the Middle East, especially the possibility of a war between Israel and Lebanon, casts its shadow on the island.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently issued an unambiguous warning. Cyprus is on the verge of becoming a kind of operations center for the war in Gaza. This is evident from intelligence reports, Fidan said in a television interview. Anyone who participates in the wars in the Middle East will be drawn into them. As a neighboring country, Turkey has no interest in such a development.
Previously, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah even directly threatened Cyprus. If Israel uses Cypriot infrastructure in the event of a war against Lebanon, Cyprus will be considered a party to the war, Nasrallah said. Hezbollah has more than 100,000 rockets, which can also reach Cyprus. Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides responded that his country is not involved in the war in the Middle East in any way. Cyprus is part of the solution, not the problem. The island nation is the starting point for the humanitarian corridor for delivering aid to Gaza. Nicosia has strongly advocated its establishment, indeed with a strategic mind.
Cyprus has intensified cooperation with Israel in recent years, in exploiting resources, but also in security matters. The armed forces have conducted several joint maneuvers. This is a thorn in Turkey’s side. This was evident during the severe crisis over maritime borders in the eastern Mediterranean and now again, as Turkish-Israeli relations have reached a historic low due to the war in Gaza. Hezbollah, of course, condemns any contact with Israel. Nasrallah claimed two years ago that Israeli troops were practicing invading Lebanon in Cyprus since the island’s hilly hinterland has similar terrain.
However, there are also two British military bases on Cyprus. To counter the missiles Iran launched on Israel in April, British fighter jets took off from there. In circles critical of Israel’s war in Gaza, there are also reports that the bases are being used to support the war effort. American special forces are also said to be on the British military bases.
In response to a parliamentary inquiry, the government in London said there had been 57 flights from the Akrotiri base to Israel between October and February alone. These were exclusively for transporting diplomatic delegations and humanitarian goods.
According to the Cyprus-based think tank Prio, Hezbollah’s threats are only indirectly about Cyprus. “In Greek, there is a saying: ‘If you can’t hit the donkey, hit the saddle.’” Nasrallah wants Europeans to influence Israel not to start a war against Hezbollah. That is why the specter of a regional conflagration is being raised.
An attack on Cyprus would activate the mutual defense clause of the EU’s Lisbon Treaty. If the British military bases were targeted, it would even involve NATO, even though Cyprus is not part of the alliance. The bases are considered extraterritorial sovereign territory of Great Britain. So far, there are no signs that Iran, the real power behind Hezbollah, is interested in such an escalation spiral.
Several months ago, the Tehran-controlled terrorist militia attempted to put pressure on the West via Cyprus. The EU signed a refugee agreement with Lebanon in May. Similar to agreements with Tunisia or Turkey, the agreement provides for the Lebanese government to be paid money to stop the flow of irregular migrants.
Cyprus is the main destination for refugees from Lebanon. Relative to its population, the island nation was temporarily the EU country with the most irregular entries. Because Nasrallah was not part of the negotiations with the EU, after the agreement was signed, he called on Syrian refugees in the country to continue crossing over to Cyprus.
Despite the recent tensions, most experts still consider the risk of Cyprus being drawn into the escalating conflict to be low. The majority of the population also holds this view. However, the events in the neighborhood are noticeable in any case. The Association of Cypriot Hotel Owners recently pointed out the negative economic consequences of the discussion about Cyprus’ security in a letter to the government. During previous major wars in the Middle East, the number of guests on the island fell each time. Geography is destiny.
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