At the beginning of this month, a Quran was once again burned in Sweden’s capital, and in the evening a Swedish flag in Türkiye. As a consequence, it could mean that the Scandinavian country, unlike its neighbor Finland, should not have much hope for membership in NATO. Unless Erdogan has his consent paid for in hard currency.
It all began with the single act of a right-wing extremist lone perpetrator in the embassy district of Stockholm: the founder of the micro-party Stram Kurs, who had already gone on a provocation tour through Sweden in the past and burned Quran books in migrant residential areas, publicly set fire to it again, and not just literally. Around 50 police officers and 200 journalists came, otherwise only a few walkers. A woman dressed in black carried a white wooden cross. An elderly lady in a bobble hat waved a Swedish flag. The extremist gave a long speech in which he ranted at length about migrant criminals. Erdogan should please not only take back all the Turks and Kurds, but also Somalis, Iraqis, Afghans, after all they are all criminals.
The action was paid for by a man close to the right-wing populist Sweden Democrats. If you want to hold a demonstration in Sweden, you have to pay a registration fee. The newspaper Syre researched that the 320 crowns for the burning of the Koran were not paid by Paludan but by Chang Frick, the operator of a right-wing populist online portal. Frick is also a presenter on the Sweden Democrats’ Riks channel.
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, whose most important foreign policy task is Sweden’s NATO accession, tried to calm things down after the Koran was burned. “Freedom of expression is a fundamental part of democracy,” he wrote. “But what is legal is not necessarily appropriate. The burning of books that are sacred to many is a deeply disrespectful act. I would like to offer my condolences to all Muslims who have been offended by what happened in Stockholm today. ”
The Turkish government was not really impressed by this. It summoned the Swedish ambassador and protested in the strongest possible terms that Paludan was being protected by the Swedish police during his “provocative action”. A spokesman for the Turkish president said that allowing the demonstration “despite our warnings” could only be understood as “an incitement to hate crime and Islamophobia”.
Erdogan’s reaction to Stockholm sounded harsh: If the Swedish government doesn’t show respect for the religious beliefs of Türkiye and Muslims, “unfortunately, they won’t get any support from us in NATO. If they love members of terrorist organizations and enemies of Islam so much, we advise them to leave the defense of their country to them.”
The Turkish opposition by no means reacted more leniently, on the contrary. It seems as if it wants to surpass the president in rhetorical sharpness in the election campaign. Opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the secular CHP tweeted: “I condemn this fascism, the pinnacle of hate crime.” Meral Aksener, head of the right-wing IYI party and with the CHP in the electoral alliance, used extra strong expressions for “immoral and dishonorable” in the Turkish language, which is rich in swear words.
The pro-government Hürriyet warned: “Are we taking the madman who burned the Koran in Sweden too seriously? How about we ignore this guy? If we whisper to him: Go to hell?” As early as Monday, the critical newspaper Karar had asked Paludan’s relationship “with the Russian secret service.” “Provocations against Türkiye are part of a comprehensive plan,” Karar commented.
Finland was open to joining NATO without Sweden. One could be forced to do so, even if joint accession remains the first option. Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto made a sensational statement on Finnish radio: under certain circumstances, Finland could be forced to consider joining NATO without its long-standing ally Sweden. A taboo was broken. And even if Haavisto emphasized several times afterwards that of course there was a “strong desire” to join together, the signal is clear. Finland wants to join NATO at all costs. And if in doubt, even without Sweden.
Several experts in the Finnish media are speculating these days that Finland could serve security in the north and perhaps help Sweden better if it joined the military alliance alone than if both countries were left out. It sounds like a premeditated justification in case Finland cuts the invisible NATO tie with Sweden.
So far, the Swedes are not shaking their knees – which is also related to the Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections this May. This could be the reason why Erdogan is so stubbornly opposed to Sweden joining NATO. By presenting himself as a strong man in foreign policy, observers suspect, the Turkish president is trying to secure the votes he urgently needs.
While in Türkiye, Swedish actions by extremists and hanging Erdogan dolls by Kurdish human rights activists are put forward in order not to admit Sweden into NATO, a different tactic is being used in Hungary: There it is argued that the parliamentary daily schedule of the past few months was too full for ratification by the Hungarian Parliament. At least that’s what the deputies of Prime Minister Orban’s Fidesz party reported. One is busy, the corresponding draft law has been presented, one simply has to wait and see.
When asked, politicians who are close to the government in Budapest either wring their hands or point out – almost cynically – that they have to respect the separation of powers: Parliament is an institution independent of the government, one can do nothing but wait and see when the topic appears on the agenda.
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government has had a two-thirds majority in parliament since 2010 and has already shown how quickly it can push bills through parliament if they benefit the boss. Bills have even been turned into laws overnight.
International pressure is growing daily for Türkiye and Sweden: High-ranking politicians from Sweden and Finland, as well as the foreign ministers of various EU and NATO countries, regularly complain about the behavior of Budapest and Ankara and call on the governments to finally act. However, Orban and Erdogan don’t seem particularly interested.
The most popular thesis in the case of Hungary is that it is about money – which the government, of course, denies. Orban wants to ensure that the European Commission freezes as little as possible of the EU funds intended for Hungary as part of the rule of law mechanism, according to the reading.
Another thesis is as follows: Given the likely scenario that the far more important player, Türkiye, will continue to haggle with Sweden for months to come, Orbán may be tempted to put his country back in the spotlight on the international stage. In Hungary there is also a debate as to whether it could ultimately be a gift to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who uses the disagreement in the EU and NATO for his propaganda.
After surviving the elections in Türkiye, the situation for the Swedes could look very different. If Erdogan remains in power, he will no longer need this question to gain voter support. If he loses, the next government could take a much softer stance. The pressure on Erdogan is also very high, and he is paying a high price for his policy of braking. Finland’s plan is therefore to wait for the elections in May and not play the Turkish game. It doesn’t matter how it ends: after the election, many experts are convinced that Türkiye will approve the Swedish application. If that were indeed the case, Sweden and Finland could be members of the alliance at the next regular NATO summit in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius in July. It remains to be seen whether all sides will manage to keep their feet still until then.
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