Few believed it was possible to overthrow the Syrian dictator. Yet after more than five decades under the rule of the Assad clan, the Syrian people now have a chance to live in safety and dignity—free from fear and oppression. However, the road ahead is long and fraught with obstacles—if it even leads to the desired goal. After more than 13 years of civil war, Syria has been devastated to its core and must be rebuilt—by a society that remains deeply divided and by factions that distrust one another. How can Europe contribute to this process?
Since Assad’s flight to Moscow, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Ahmed al-Sharaa—formerly known as Abu Mohammed al-Julani—has taken control in Damascus. The Islamist militia is not the only armed group in Syria, but it is currently the most influential. The United States and the United Nations classify HTS as a terrorist organization, and the European Union has imposed sanctions on both HTS and its leader, Sharaa.
Nevertheless, the U.S., the EU, and Germany have established contact with Syria’s new rulers. While Sharaa and his inner circle’s Islamist background poses the risk that Syria could fall under Islamist rule, ignoring the group or questioning its legitimacy could be just as perilous. Marginalizing HTS might push it toward further radicalization, making it an even greater threat to the country. By sending diplomats to Damascus, Western states are extending HTS a degree of trust while also holding it accountable. They have an opportunity to assess who these new rulers are, what they plan for Syria, and whether they warrant support. For years, Syria’s fate was largely dictated by Russia and Iran, and Assad’s downfall is a humiliation for them. Now, the political landscape is shifting—presenting a potential opportunity for Europe. The EU’s primary interest lies in the return of Syrian refugees, which can only happen if a state emerges where people can live in safety and without hunger.
A Government Representing All Syrians
The most crucial step toward rebuilding Syria is the establishment of a government that represents all segments of its population. Even before the civil war, Assad’s rule was marked by tensions between the country’s many ethnic and religious groups. His power was based on the Alawite minority, to which he himself belongs, leading to resentment among other groups—including Christians, Druze, Shiites, and the Sunni majority.
Now, under the new Sunni leadership, Alawites and Christians fear marginalization and discrimination. There have already been isolated acts of retribution: Several Alawites were massacred and killed by supporters of the Sunni leadership in Damascus. To prevent the displacement of Alawites and other minorities from Syria’s multi-religious society, they must have a say in shaping the country’s future. They should be represented in a new government that replaces the current transitional administration led by technocrat and HTS ally Mohammed al-Bashir.
Over the years, many exiled Syrians have contemplated what a political system after Assad might look like. The EU could provide a platform—similar to previous Syria conferences in Geneva—where representatives of various groups can openly discuss the formation of a government, a new constitution, and the framework for free and fair elections. Under Assad, such conferences ended without results because he had no interest in sharing power.
Securing Syria’s Territorial Unity
One of the key challenges for the HTS-led transitional government is maintaining Syria’s territorial unity. Currently, HTS controls only parts of the country. During the fight to oust Assad, both the Syrian National Army (SNA) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) supported HTS. Now, however, Turkey-backed SNA forces and the Kurdish-dominated SDF are clashing with each other. The Kurds seek to maintain their de facto autonomy in northeastern Syria, while Turkey sees their presence along its border as a security threat.
To prevent internal conflict and separatist movements, SNA and SDF forces would need to be disbanded and integrated into the national army. HTS has already announced plans to do so, but its influence alone may not be enough to compel the northern factions to comply. Therefore, Turkey, as the SNA’s main backer, and the U.S., as the SDF’s key ally, would need to facilitate this process—though this seems unlikely.
Another challenge is posed by the many local rebel groups in Syria. These factions had previously fought alongside HTS against Assad and seized military equipment from defecting government soldiers. Whether they will accept HTS’s leadership remains uncertain—just as it is unclear how HTS will impose control if resistance emerges. Initial meetings with local group representatives have reportedly been largely peaceful. Even former Assad loyalists are expected to be integrated into the future army. This decision by the new rulers in Damascus is a pragmatic one, as evidenced by the experience in Iraq. After the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, all soldiers who had fought for his regime were dismissed. Many later joined the terrorist group ISIS. Avoiding a similar scenario is in the interest of all Western nations.
The Economic Reconstruction of Syria
For many Syrians, rebuilding the country’s economy is the highest priority. Currently, around 90 percent of the population lives below the poverty line, and two-thirds depend on humanitarian aid. Expectations for the new leadership are high, but without international support, stabilizing Syria—even at a minimal level—will be nearly impossible.
Syria needs new roads, power lines, water infrastructure, and the reconstruction of entire neighborhoods. The swift return of hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees is unrealistic given the apocalyptic conditions in many areas. Homes, villages, and cities lie in ruins, and it remains unclear who will finance the reconstruction. The U.S., the EU, Turkey, and the Gulf states have the strongest interest in Syria’s rebuilding. Turkish construction firms are already eyeing lucrative contracts, while Gulf states see investment opportunities. However, the funding required is immense—estimates range from $250 billion to $1 trillion.
Europe’s Role in Syria’s Future
The EU should take part in Syria’s reconstruction while tying its assistance to specific conditions. If HTS meets these conditions, Europe could gradually lift sanctions on Syria’s new leadership. It is crucial that all states involved in rebuilding coordinate their efforts to prevent loopholes that Sharaa and his associates might exploit.
Given the enormous challenges Syria faces, HTS may ultimately fail in its efforts. The country could once again descend into civil war or fall under a new authoritarian regime—this time under Islamist rule.
Looking at the broader region, there is little reason for optimism: After the overthrow of dictators in Iraq, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen, millions of Arabs saw their hopes for dignity and freedom shattered. With Assad’s removal, Syrians have begun a new chapter. Europe should engage in this process critically and constructively.
