Policy Assessment Unit at MENA monitor
Situation estimates
The Houthi / Iranian aggression against Abu Dhabi must be faced with a wise and firm response, and this is what the UAE government can do. The biggest role in these remains in the international community and global international powers, which must be firm and decisive in responding, so that these Iranian gangs do not remain roiling in the region and implement its agendas without calculating the consequences.
That is why the coalition was in order to achieve this stability, because of its great importance to world peace and the movement of its economy. But the Iranian military support for the Houthi rebels, and the Iranian axis’s support for them, through Hezbollah and the Syrian regime, has contributed a lot to the deterioration of the security situation and the prolongation of the war. Those who have provided support from behind the scenes to settle scores in favor of the Iranian axis, which has become a threat to the Arabian Gulf with its political and economic importance, and at the same time it has become a threat to world peace. The Houthi attack on Abu Dhabi comes from this door.
In a dangerous development in this regard, Houthi militias, through marching aircraft, bombed Abu Dhabi.
“We have previously sent messages of affiliation, It seems that the UAE did not understand this warning message, so we sent them A clear alert message.” Abdul Ilah Hajar,a political advisor in the Houthi government, says to AFP.
For self-defense and defense of Yemen, with these pretexts that indicate a dangerous development that threatens world peace. Al-Houthi militias have announced their blatant terrorist aggression against the UAE.
Dangerous event!
Preliminary investigations indicate the detection of small flying objects, possibly drones in the two areas, and they may have caused the explosion and fire, according to Emirates News Agency (WAM) sources.
Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi Police confirmed a fire broke out, on Monday morning. This led to an explosion in three tankers transporting petroleum gases in the Musaffah “ICAD 3” area, near ADNOC’s tanks. Another minor fire incident occurred in the new construction area of Abu Dhabi International Airport.
On Monday, various media outlets confirmed complete control of the two fires in the Musaffah area and Abu Dhabi Airport.
However, this Houthi/Iranian message has serious implications for the region and cannot be considered a normal event, because of the danger it poses to world peace and its economy on the one hand, as we mentioned above. On the other hand, it is a dangerous development in the course of the Iranian-backed Houthi rebellion, and it must be confronted and the perpetrator punished, in order to ensure stability and security in the region.
Rather, Houthi media revealed his barbarity and rudeness when the Houthi-affiliated Yemeni Al Masirah TV announced earlier that the “armed forces” were preparing to announce a qualitative military operation in the UAE.
Why Houthi attack on UAE?
It is the first time that the UAE interior has been subjected to Houthi attacks since the UAE began its withdrawal from the war in Yemen, more than two years ago.
“The UAE had a desire to withdraw from Yemen and we actually provided them with a safe withdrawal, but they re-escalated and intensified their aggression against us, so this was the beginning of our response,” Muhammad al-Bakhiti, a member of the political bureau of the Ansar Allah Houthi group, says to the Qatari channel Al-Jazeera
Al-Bakhiti refers to the field developments that Yemen has been witnessing in recent days, especially after the internationally recognized government forces backed by the Saudi-led coalition took control of Shabwa governorate, a victory achieved by the Giants Brigades of the UAE-backed Security Belt Forces of the Southern Transitional Council in Yemen.
In other words, it is revenge against the Emirates and accusing it of returning to the right-wing war by supporting the Al-Hazm Forces, which are affiliated with the Southern Transitional Legitimacy Council, as Al-Bakhiti says.
A week ago, the Yemeni forces loyal to the coalition, including the Giants Brigades, regained control of parts of Usaylan in Shabwa and advanced towards Baihan. Dozens of people were killed on both sides, two military sources say to Reuters. The pro-government fighters have also recaptured some areas in the southern and western outskirts of Marib city, according to three other military and tribal sources.
Brigadier-General Turki Al-Maliki, the official spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition to Shabwa, had announced “the launch of the operation to liberate Happy Yemen”, in reference to the change of the Saudi position, and the trend towards a stage of resolving and ending the war militarily.
Al-Bakhiti, the Houthi spokesman, frankly explains the expansion of the war, declaring that the attack against the UAE is the beginning. In addition, he has threatened that there will be further attacks “if the UAE chooses the path of escalation.” The same message was confirmed by Yahya Saree, the Houthi military spokesman, in a tweet that stated that they would target the “Emirati depth” with more attacks.
Where are things headed after the aggression of the Emirates?
The escalation after the aggression against the UAE depends mainly on how the UAE responds to that dangerous escalation on the part of the Houthis. Either Abu Dhabi resorts to a military response by launching massive attacks by aircraft on targets such as Sanaa Airport, which is the airport from which the drones that attacked Abu Dhabi launched, according to the coalition, in addition to intensifying support for the forces currently fighting the Houthis in Marib.
Or the UAE will exercise restraint, according to some strategic analysts, by resorting to calm, adopting back channels and communicating with Iran, which supports the Houthis, especially in light of Abu Dhabi’s recent tendency to open a “new page” of relations with Tehran. Although the Houthis deny that their military steps are coordinated with Tehran, the Saudi government says that the Shiite rebel movement is one of Iran’s arms in the region – like the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
From the aggression on the UAE to the Vienna negotiations!
When we expand the scope of analysis of the Houthi aggression against the UAE with international trends, we will find that it is not only related to the participation of the forces trained by the UAE in Yemen (the giants – the security belt) in the battles of Shabwa and Marib, but also to the developments related to the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear file that are taking place in Vienna, and the relations with Tehran more broadly. Here is the missing point in the analysis.
Last week, the strategic spokesman for the MENA monitor indicated in an interview with Al-Hurra about the matter. He confirmed, based on information obtained by the MENA Center for Studies, that the negotiations on the nuclear file with Iran, which are taking place in Vienna, the Austrian capital, have reached a critical point.
“Iran, through its external arms such as Hezbollah and Al- Houthis, may go to some terrorist act in the region, to improve Iran’s position in the negotiations. This is what Iran resorts to, as usual, when it faces embarrassment in negotiating, as it relies on its illegal tools to obtain negotiating papers using its gangster method,” he added.
In fact, this is what happened, according to an analysis that the MENA monitor spokesperson warned of it last week
Is there a Syrian role for this aggression against the UAE?
This Houthi aggression against the UAE was not improvised, but there were trainings obtained by the Houthi militia, with the help of the Syrian regime, in the Palmyra desert, according to what sources, who refused to reveal their name, told the Mina Monitor.
In addition, elements of the Lebanese Hezbollah participated in these trainings, and accordingly the source does not rule out the relationship of the Syrian regime and Hezbollah with this act of terrorism and their dangerous role in it. Especially since the two sides want from shuffling the cards to get points in their favor after the deteriorating living conditions in Syria and Lebanon. And because the Iranian regime has authority on both sides – the Syrian regime and Hezbollah- this is what pushed the analyzes and information in this direction, in addition to the Iranian impasse in the Vienna nuclear negotiations.
Finally
The Houthi / Iranian aggression against Abu Dhabi must be faced with a wise and firm response, and this is what the UAE government can do. The biggest role in these remains in the international community and global international powers, which must be firm and decisive in responding, so that these Iranian gangs do not remain roiling in the region and implement their agendas without calculating the consequences.
