Minutes after the official results of the European elections were announced in France on June 9, President Emmanuel Macron appeared on TV and announced snap legislative elections to be held on June 30, with the second round on July 7. No wonder the results aroused the discontent of the President and his ruling party — the National Rally (Rassemblement National) won 31.4% of all votes, gaining an additional 12 seats in the European Parliament, while his own party obtained only 14.6% of voters’ support.
The President’s announcement of the snap elections was, however, quite unpredictable but most likely well calculated. For instance, France’s young Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, confessed that he tried to dissuade Emmanuel Macron from dissolving the National Assembly and to accept his resignation instead, which the President refused to do.
Far Right versus Far Left
According to the latest available survey, three main forces will share the parliament: the Rassemblement National with 37% of the votes, the Nouveau Front Populaire with 30%, and the presidential camp, which would obtain only 22%. Les Républicains (LR) could enjoy no more than 8% of voters’ support.
The left spectrum of the political chessboard, including the Socialist Party, La France Insoumise (LFI), Ecologists, and the Communist Party, quickly joined forces for the elections, creating a “Nouveau Front Populaire” (NFP) with a reference to the Front Populaire that existed before the Second World War. They have based their campaign on populist promises, such as an increase in the SMIC (minimum wage), revoking the immigration laws adopted under Macron, and easier access to residence permits, while certain candidates have even shown their sympathies towards Hamas — a terrorist organisation. However, such moves would be difficult to implement, and improving minimum wages is rather a populistic move to draw more supporters without improving the economic standards of living for the French.
As for the RN, their campaign is centred on fighting against illegal migration and diminishing legal migration, improving business conditions, and fighting against fraud. On foreign policy, Jordan Bardella worked to improve the party’s image and distance the RN from Russia, stating that aid to Ukraine should continue but that there should be no French troops on the ground in Ukraine. Additionally, one of his declarations regarding the ban on access to certain high-ranking posts for French citizens with another passport, including the Ministry of Defence or the Foreign Ministry, sparked harsh criticism.
The preliminary results announced this evening have confirmed the end of the “Macronie” and are as follows: Rassemblement National & allies 34%, Nouveau Front Populaire 29.1%, Presidential majority 21.5%, and Les Républicains 10%. Therefore, everything points to a cohabitation, a situation when the president is from a different political party than the majority of the members of parliament, which previously happened in 1986, 1993, and 1997.
Possible calculations and outcomes
There are two main calculations President Macron may have made prior to announcing the snap elections. He may have thought that voters would be scared by the fact that the Rassemblement National might win the majority in the National Assembly and form the government, thus preferring a known outcome, his own political force. But closer to the election date, and especially after the announcement of the results of the first round, this can be dismissed.
Another calculation, and the most realistic one, is Macron’s understanding that the RN would win the elections, albeit most likely without an absolute majority. This would, on the one hand, allow him to blame the RN for anything happening in the country, and on the other hand, allow President Macron to work to derail the possibility of Marine Le Pen (RN) winning the next presidential elections by doing all possible and impossible to ensure that the RN will not be able to implement its policies.
Even though things may evolve in one week — the second round of the legislative elections — it seems that the RN didn’t manage to obtain an absolute majority, which will make things more difficult for them, especially in light of Jordan Bardella’s declarations that he will not accept the post of Prime Minister without an absolute majority. However, if Les Républicains enter into a coalition with the RN, they will have more than enough votes to create a government.
But President Macron also has a joker in his hand — if the country is governed in chaos due to a quasi-nonfunctioning Assemblée Nationale — he can dissolve the parliament again in one year. But today, one thing is clear: France is in a deep political crisis with no quick and easy way out.
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