In recent months since the events of October 7, the influx of images showing victims and devastation in Gaza has caused widespread alarm across various Middle Eastern countries. The rising death toll appears to be rapidly shifting opinions throughout the region. Polls indicate that Israel is less popular among Arab populations than ever before, affecting even countries that support Israel, such as the United States and Saudi Arabia, which was moving toward normalization with Israel. These reports suggest a potential increase in extremism across the Arab world, as perceptions of injustice are a key driver of extremism globally, heightening the risk of growing extremism in the Middle East.
Experts are questioning the long-term impact of the Gaza conflict, especially since opinion polls consistently show that the Palestinian issue has been central in the Middle East even before October 7. Recent surveys reveal that Arab populations have always been significantly less enthusiastic about normalizing relations between Israel and their governments. Observers believe that, given this context, the Palestinian question is unlikely to be sidelined. Earlier this month, EU Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson expressed concern about the risk of terrorist attacks in EU countries, adding, “with the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas and the polarization it causes in our societies, coupled with the approaching holiday season, the risk of terrorist attacks in the EU is immense. We have seen this recently in Paris and, unfortunately, we have seen it before as well.” The Gaza conflict has led to divisions in European and U.S. public sentiment, as well as an increase in anti-Semitic and anti-Islamic rhetoric.
Recently, there have been arrests in Germany and the Netherlands of individuals believed to be connected to Hamas and suspected of “planning attacks” in Europe. However, experts suggest that if such an attack were to occur, it would be unprecedented, as Hamas’s primary targets are regionally focused, unlike other extremist groups such as Al-Qaeda or ISIS, which have international ambitions. ISIS has used what it calls “Western double standards” to recruit new members.
Security agencies across the Middle East fear that the Gaza conflict might allow ISIS and Al-Qaeda to rebuild their networks throughout the region, potentially leading to a wave of terrorist attacks in the coming months and years, according to a report by The Guardian. Officials and analysts note that there is already evidence of increased Islamic extremist activity in various locations, although multiple factors contribute to this rise. Analysts and officials state that the new activity is linked to the Israeli war in Gaza, as well as to broader issues like economic crises, instability, and ongoing civil conflicts.
A regional source told The Guardian, “the Gaza war is a source fueling terrorism and extremism around the world, and there is a strong emotional reaction that we are just beginning to feel.” The United Nations has published a series of reports highlighting the efforts of major extremist groups to exploit the Gaza conflict to attract new recruits and mobilize current supporters. Regional officials emphasize the impact of months of constant exposure to images of suffering in Gaza on television and the internet, describing the conflict as a “push factor” that encourages extremist violence across the Middle East and elsewhere. The UN report describes how ISIS’s public communications since October 7th have focused on exploiting the Gaza situation to mobilize potential lone actors to carry out attacks.
The European Terrorism Index for last year, published by the European Centre for Counterterrorism and Intelligence Studies, showed an increase in risks related to extremism and terrorist operations in most EU countries. It warned of an unprecedented pace of terrorism in Europe due to the Gaza war, as well as the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. Indicators also showed a rise in far-right extremist threats during the year, with statistics revealing 50 groups associated with the French far-right, including individuals from the military and police, using online platforms to incite violence. In France, there is growing concern about the implications of the Gaza war, with incidents of anti-Semitism and party disagreements over how to characterize Hamas attacks and support for Israel. In the UK, extremist Islamist groups are depleting British intelligence resources, while the far-right scene is dominated by individuals or small groups, making it difficult for British authorities to predict and address far-right threats. Sweden’s security situation has deteriorated over the past year and the current one due to the burning of Quran copies and its supportive stance towards Israel, shifting from being a legitimate target of terrorist attacks to a priority target.
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