Support for Israel has historically been a significant topic in U.S. presidential campaigns due to various factors, including Israel’s influence on the media and its financial pressure on both the Republican and Democratic parties. The ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip has coincided with the presidential race in the United States, making it a strategic issue for candidates like Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Biden’s support among Jewish voters in the Democratic Party and Trump’s backing from Christian voters, whose religious beliefs often shape their political preferences, are affected by their candidates’ stance on Israel.
According to a recent poll of 2,300 individuals, a substantial 80 percent of U.S. voters, including 57 percent of those aged 18-24, express support for Israel’s actions in its confrontation with Hamas. While Trump has been viewed as strongly pro-Israel, having taken steps like recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and acknowledging Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights from Syria, some supporters of the Jewish state have voiced concerns. Criticisms from Israeli figures, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, regarding Trump’s statements, such as describing Hezbollah as “smart,” raise doubts about his consistency in supporting Israel if he were to return to the White House.
This analysis highlights the impact of the Gaza conflict on the U.S. election and speculates on the steps that President Biden may take to maintain his position in the White House. Additionally, it underscores the challenge of navigating Israel’s support in the context of the presidential race, where candidates must balance appealing to various voter demographics while addressing complex geopolitical dynamics.
Biden administration crisis
Biden currently faces a challenging position regarding the Gaza War, despite his support for a two-state solution, which is favored by 81 percent of U.S. Christians according to polls. Following Operation Deluge al-Aqsa, his administration’s staunch backing of Israel through various means—arms, finance, intelligence, diplomacy, and legal support—risked alienating other minority groups in the United States, particularly Islamists. This dilemma was exemplified by Abdullah Hammoud Kheir, the mayor of Dearborn, Michigan, who emphasized the importance of Biden’s stance on Gaza for his re-election prospects. Despite Biden’s victory over Trump in Michigan during the 2020 presidential campaign, his unwavering support for Israel during the conflict jeopardized his support in key swing states.
Kheir pledged to mobilize opposition voices in the Democratic primary scheduled for February 27, aiming to encourage “uncommitted” voters, totaling 146,000 individuals who voted for Biden in 2020, to reconsider their support. Thirty elected officials announced their intention to vote “uncommitted” in the primary as a tactic to pressure Biden to reconsider his Middle East policy. The growing disapproval among young Democratic voters regarding Biden’s handling of the Israel-Gaza conflict is a concerning trend for Democrats, as it threatens a vital support base that contributed to Biden’s victory in 2020.
Biden’s approval rating has plummeted to its lowest point, reaching 38%, while the Arab American Institute found that only 17% of Arab Americans intend to vote for him in 2024, a stark decrease from 59% in 2020. This decline in support among Arab Americans and young Democrats, particularly progressives, can be attributed partly to their tendency to associate the Palestinian cause with the broader struggle for social justice within the United States.
Pressure on Biden is mounting, particularly as he receives 55 percent of his financial support from Jewish donors. While he has acknowledged that Israel’s actions in Gaza have gone too far, Tel Aviv’s unwavering backing remains unchanged. The loss of minority or anti-Israel votes not only harms Biden’s electoral prospects but also highlights growing international criticism against Israel. This criticism has intensified, especially following the International Court of Justice’s recent rulings. While Israel may disregard the court’s judgments, the United States and the United Kingdom cannot afford to do so, analysts argue.
The Democratic Party’s overall stance may not always align with the preferences of Jewish members, indicating a potential rift within the party. Concerns are also rising about Democratic voter boycotts as a form of protest against Biden’s Israel policies, posing a significant challenge for the president.
Aside from grappling with military and diplomatic complexities in the region, the Biden administration must also navigate domestic challenges, such as budget disputes, while simultaneously demonstrating its efficacy on the campaign trail.
Despite calls from Trump loyalists for isolationist foreign policies, bipartisan support for Israel remains robust in Congress. Biden’s attempt to link military aid to Ukraine with aid to Israel reflects his strategy to garner Republican support for Ukraine by leveraging bipartisan backing for Israel.
Conflict over the two States
The Israeli prime minister has rebuffed a Washington-backed proposal for Palestinian sovereignty, revealing a discord between Biden and Netanyahu regarding the two-state solution and post-war resolution in Gaza. Netanyahu emphasized Israel’s insistence on retaining security control over all territories west of the Jordan River, a stance communicated to “Israel’s American friends.” Meanwhile, the U.S. Administration has called for reforms within the Palestinian Authority, which currently governs semi-autonomous regions in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, to assume governance over Gaza post-war.
Even though Donald Trump has been hailed by Netanyahu as Israel’s “best friend,” Trump’s willingness to criticize Israeli officials, including Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, after Operation Deluge al-Aqsa in October indicates a complex relationship. However, Netanyahu seemingly favors Trump, anticipating that his return to the White House would align better with Israel’s interests, particularly in prolonging the conflict to thwart Biden’s presidency and avoid responsibility, elections, or a Palestinian State.
American officials have intensified pressure on Israel to endorse the establishment of a Palestinian State, with Secretary of State Anthony Blinken asserting that Israel’s genuine security hinges on this path. These efforts are perceived as aimed at undermining Biden’s support, partly due to mounting discontent among Arab Americans and the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Analysts view the pursuit of a Palestinian state as Biden’s crucial strategy to secure victory over Trump in key states like Michigan, which holds significant electoral college votes and swings between parties.
In Michigan, where Trump narrowly won in 2016 but Biden secured a decisive victory in 2020, recent polls indicate Trump’s resurgence, potentially due to shifts in the Muslim voter demographic. The outcome hinges on whether Michigan’s Muslim population will support Biden or abstain from the election.
It’s worth noting that the Israeli right seems to be leveraging the ongoing conflict in Gaza to bolster Trump’s standing in the upcoming election. National Security Minister Itmar Ben Gafir’s rare public criticism of a sitting U.S. president underscores this tactic. Ben Gafir’s remarks imply that Trump would have provided unwavering support to Israel, contrasting with what he perceives as Biden’s focus on humanitarian aid to Gaza, which indirectly benefits Hamas.
How Trump Benefits from the War in Gaza
Trump’s potential benefit from the Gaza conflict lies in the fluctuating support for Biden among both pro-Israel and anti-Israel factions. Despite Trump’s historically aligned policies with Netanyahu’s government, particularly in the Middle East, such as his January 2020 peace plan, his administration’s approach heavily favored Israel’s interests over Palestinian concerns. This dynamic underscores the complex interplay of geopolitics and domestic politics in shaping electoral outcomes.
Trump’s plan proposed Jerusalem as the unified capital of Israel and did not advocate for the removal of any West Bank settlements, sparking outrage among Palestinians. However, Trump appeared to tread carefully on the issue of the Gaza conflict. During Republican candidates’ competition, Trump frequently asserted that such a conflict, akin to the Russian-Ukrainian war, would not have occurred had he still been in office. He believed his presence in Washington would have deterred Hamas from initiating hostilities, despite limited evidence supporting the notion that the United States, as a close ally of Israel with Biden in office, significantly influenced Hamas’s decision to go to war.
Trump’s rhetoric appears to resonate with a segment of the American populace, particularly younger individuals. Polls indicate that many citizens now perceive Trump as better equipped to handle the Gaza conflict than Biden. When asked whom they trust more to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, 46% favored Trump, compared to only 38% for Biden.
Despite these trends, the Jewish community has increasingly criticized Republicans, especially after some of Trump’s supporters blocked additional foreign aid to Israel. With control over the House and influence in the Senate, this pro-Trump faction is diverging from the longstanding expectation of unconditional U.S. defense assistance to Israel, which has been a cornerstone of pro-Israel activism.
The Senate recently approved a $95.3 billion bill aimed at aiding Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan. While a few Democrats voted against it, citing concerns over Israel’s conduct and the human toll of the Gaza conflict, the bulk of the opposition stemmed from Republicans.
Many Republicans opposing additional aid to Israel argue on fiscal grounds, citing concerns over excessive government spending. Others express reluctance to support President Joe Biden’s initiatives. Matt Brooks, CEO of the Republican Jewish Coalition, the party’s leading Jewish group, voiced apprehension about what he termed “neo-isolationists” within the party. He warned against a growing faction seeking to withdraw the United States from global engagements, fearing it could lead to abandoning support for Israel.
The notion of conditioning aid to Israel gained traction primarily among Democrats, especially the progressive wing, viewing aid as leverage to influence Israel’s policies toward Palestinians. Conversely, Republicans opposing recent aid bills maintain their pro-Israel stance but argue that the mounting deficit necessitates reevaluation of decades-long unrestricted foreign aid.
Notably, the 14 Republicans who voted against the bill were all members of the Freedom Caucus, aligned closely with Trump. This trend signals a growing phenomenon, as Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, among the 14 lawmakers, has consistently voted against aid to Israel. Republicans voting against aid advocate for offsetting the expenditure through budget cuts or converting foreign aid into loans, an approach endorsed by Trump and his allies.
Senator Lindsey Graham, a staunch ally of Trump, advocated for the supplementary aid package to be structured as loans, echoing President Trump’s suggestion. Graham, along with Senators Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas, both historically supportive of Israel, voted against the Senate bill.
While Trump has demonstrated strong support for Israel and maintained warm relations with Netanyahu, there are concerns within Israel and the Jewish community about rushing to embrace Trump’s support. Trump’s policy may lean towards isolationism, potentially jeopardizing the long-standing unconditional U.S. support for Israel. The shift to providing aid to Israel in the form of loans, as proposed by Trump, presents challenges for Israel, given its economy and military’s reliance on U.S. assistance.
Netanyahu’s Israeli government has favored Trump thus far. However, Netanyahu faces declining popularity since the onset of the Gaza conflict. Former defense minister and leader of the “official camp” party, Benny Gantz, has gained traction, as confirmed by a poll published by Channel 12 Hebrew. According to the survey, 41% of respondents view Gantz as the most suitable candidate to lead the government, compared to 23% for Netanyahu, with 29% indicating neither candidate as appropriate. If Knesset elections were held now, Gantz’s party would secure 37 seats, while Netanyahu’s Likud party would only garner 18 seats, according to the Hebrew Channel’s findings.
Observers speculate that Netanyahu aims to prolong the Gaza conflict until Trump returns to the White House, with hopes that this maneuver will shield him from potential legal repercussions, as reported in the Hebrew newspaper Yediot Ahrnot.
Conclusions:
- President Joe Biden’s steadfast support for Israel following Hamas’ Operation Al-Aqsa has led to a significant loss of support among Arabs, Muslims, people of color, and the younger generation. The intensity of Israel’s violent actions in the Gaza Strip has contributed to a decline in support for Israel among the youth.
- Despite some criticism of Israeli attacks, Biden has continued to provide generous military and financial assistance to Israel. However, his vocal opposition to certain Israeli actions has led to a decrease in support among Jewish voters, with some voices suggesting Trump as a better alternative.
- The impact of Biden’s critical stance on Israel remains to be seen, but it is expected to result in a slight shift in voter perceptions. The outcome will depend on any developments leading up to the elections.
- Trump, without the constraints of power, has capitalized on Biden’s challenges, suggesting that the conflict in Gaza would not have occurred under his presidency. This has garnered support from disaffected voters on both sides, potentially affecting voter turnout or support levels.
- Netanyahu and the Israeli right are aligning with Trump due to ideological similarities and Trump’s disregard for human rights issues and international conventions. However, Trump’s victory is not a straightforward win for Israeli interests, as his policies have included easing U.S. commitments to allies and advocating for a two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Netanyahu may also face backlash for his perceived disloyalty to Trump after congratulating Biden following the 2020 election.
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