Although recent statistics in Germany indicate that the number of asylum applications has significantly decreased in the past two months, the overall situation remains substantial: more than 2.5 million people have applied for asylum in Germany since 2015. Last year alone, about as many migrants arrived in the country as the population of Bonn, the former seat of government: 329,000. Since the beginning of this year, about 20,000 applications have been added monthly, mostly from people from the Near and Middle East.
Many of them have little prospect of obtaining a residence permit under German asylum law, but they can still stay in the country. Far too few people are being returned to their home countries, and some countries vehemently refuse to take back their citizens. These two trends can be exemplified by Iraq and Türkiye. For example, Iraqi citizens continue to submit around 1,000 asylum applications per month, even though most are rejected. Currently, it is mainly Turks who are applying for asylum in large numbers with little chance of success: with more than 62,000 applications last year, Türkiye ranked second among asylum-origin countries, after Syria and before Afghanistan. By the end of the year, the influx had subsided. Now, the numbers have slightly increased again.
In recent months, only about 13 percent of Turks received a residence permit, while for Iraqis it was less than one-third. By comparison, the protection rate for Syrians has been nearly 100 percent since 2015, and for Afghans it is similarly high due to a deportation ban.
Why do so many Turks continue to head to Germany despite these slim chances of success? Studies show that for the majority of Turkish asylum seekers in recent years, economic conditions rather than political decisions have been decisive. The group of genuinely politically persecuted individuals has decreased. After the attempted coup against President Erdogan in 2016, mainly sympathizers of the Gülen movement or PKK supporters sought asylum migration. At the end of 2021, the protection rate for Turkish asylum seekers was still 50 percent, but it has since steadily declined. “Autocratization has not subsided, but the persecution of opposition members has significantly decreased,” according to a study by the Center for Türkiye Studies at the University of Duisburg. This is also the view within the EU.
Many Turks are dissatisfied with the economic situation. The Turkish lira has lost half its value since 2021, and inflation rose to almost 70 percent last month. Additionally, a devastating earthquake in February last year shook the southeast of the country. The affected areas were predominantly Kurdish. This also explains the high proportion of Kurds among Turkish asylum seekers: according to the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, it was about 84 percent last year. Many low-skilled individuals have come through asylum migration in recent years, including from earthquake-affected areas. They had no chance through skilled worker immigration.
Even if a Turkish migrant’s asylum application is rejected in Germany, they rarely have to fear being deported. Although deportations to NATO-member Türkiye are possible, there have been relatively few. Consequently, the number of Turks required to leave the country has risen from just under 9,800 at the end of 2021 to 13,500 at the end of 2023.
Iraqi nationals still form the largest group required to leave the country. The German government has long attempted to increase deportations, with little success. A migration agreement was signed with Iraq in mid-last year. Iraq is supposed to cooperate in taking back its citizens, while more legal visas are issued for business people and skilled workers. After the advance of the Islamic State about ten years ago, many Iraqis fled. At the height of the civil war in 2015, their protection rate was almost 100 percent. According to the Foreign Office, the security situation has since changed, and deportations have generally been possible again since last year. However, the number of deportations has hardly increased: from January to March, only 222 Iraqis who were required to leave had to leave the country.
In fact, the number of Iraqis required to leave the country shrank last year. However, this was not because more Iraqis had to leave the country, but because nearly 11,000 Iraqis and 45,000 other migrants fell out of the statistics due to the newly introduced “opportunity residence law.” This new provisional residence can be applied for by many rejected asylum seekers. Good integration is supposed to lead to a right to remain. Additionally, the data set was automatically corrected last year. Twenty thousand people who had left the country in recent years were suddenly removed from the statistics. Another incentive for the high number of irregular immigrants is the new citizenship law, which offers migrants German citizenship after just three years.
Another reason is the agreement of the EU states on asylum reform, which is supposed to make irregular migration significantly more difficult. The new regulations are also being closely watched in Türkiye. Apparently, many Turks have therefore decided to seize the opportunity to come to Europe through the asylum route for the last time. While the number of returns increased in 2023 with the influx of migrants from Türkiye, the number of those required to leave the country did not decrease. On the contrary: the group of Turks required to leave increased from 13,523 to 14,275 people in the first quarter of this year. Thus, more Turks are now required to leave than Afghans.
The reasons for this lie not only in German asylum policy. Turkish consulates often refuse to issue replacement travel documents. The Turkish side generally does not accept so-called collective deportation flights either. The large Turkish community in Germany, on the other hand, offers many rejected asylum seekers shelter and jobs. They benefit from networks that have formed since the first generation of guest workers.
When Erdogan visited Germany for his official visit after his re-election last November, Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged the president to take back his citizens. In fact, more Turks were deported, twice as many in 2023 as in 2022. However, in absolute numbers, these are still few. A “deportation offensive” is not yet visible.
Herein lies the main problem of the German asylum system: an asylum application effectively grants the vast majority of migrants the right to remain and claim social benefits, regardless of whether there are grounds for protection. This is the opposite of a controlled asylum policy.
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