Even in a country that has never been a fully-fledged democracy, this day marks a turning point. For years, President Erdoğan has repeatedly had political opponents arrested and convicted—most often Kurdish politicians like the popular Selahattin Demirtaş. But in Ekrem İmamoğlu, Erdoğan seems to have seen from the start someone capable of winning broad support across the country—and potentially becoming a real threat to his rule.
It was no coincidence that İmamoğlu’s arrest resembled a coup. A massive security presence, roadblocks everywhere, bans on gatherings, and subway stations shut down. Platforms like X and YouTube were blocked. Erdoğan has long understood that Istanbul’s popular mayor poses the greatest threat to his grip on power. İmamoğlu, with his charisma, not only unites wide segments of the population—he has also become a symbol of everything many Turks feel is missing after more than two decades of Erdoğan’s rule: a rational, credible, and open form of politics.
İmamoğlu likely wasn’t surprised by the coup against him. Erdoğan’s power apparatus has been pulling every lever for years to prevent a direct showdown between the long-time president and the dynamic bearer of hope. Elections have been annulled, criminal investigations launched on absurd grounds. Most recently, Istanbul University even stripped him of his degree on flimsy pretexts.
After Erdoğan temporarily pacified the Kurdish front with his “deal” with PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, it became clear to the opposition that the president would now shift focus and strike against his next major rival. The fate of former opposition star Selahattin Demirtaş has long shown that even public figures in Erdoğan’s realm are not safe from imprisonment.
The EU can do little more than issue appeals in response to what the opposition is calling a “coup attempt” in a NATO member state. Erdoğan, the shrewd power politician, has positioned himself as a crucial partner in many of today’s major crises—refugees, Syria, Ukraine, and more. Sanctioning him might make the West feel morally superior, but Brussels knows just how vital good working relations with Ankara are right now. In any case, sanctions would barely mask Europe’s powerlessness in this conflict. Erdoğan has made it abundantly clear that he is determined to defend his one-man rule by any means necessary—no matter the cost. Pressure from abroad has rarely made a difference in the past.
The president apparently believes this is the right moment to move against his challenger. With Trump’s influence, the war in Ukraine, and the situation in Syria, Europe sees Erdoğan as a key partner. Plus, the next elections aren’t scheduled until 2028. Many expect the date to be brought forward, but Erdoğan is likely counting on Turkish society having become used to an imprisoned İmamoğlu by then—just as it grew accustomed to other Erdoğan opponents being jailed.
In the end, one truth remains: the power struggle between Erdoğan and İmamoğlu can only be decided by the Turkish people themselves. As unequal as the battle may seem, Turkey’s opposition has retained its capacity for renewal—even after years of intense repression (and came close to winning the last election). İmamoğlu’s removal deals a harsh blow to the movement, as he was the only figure with the charisma and aura to challenge the aging ruler. But discontent is simmering in both the economy and society. Anger at autocracy and cronyism cannot be locked behind prison walls. The final battle has not yet been fought for Turkey’s opposition.
