The U.S. intelligence community noted in its annual threat assessment that China has more than tripled its exports of goods with potential military use to Russia, since Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment underlines that China “provides economic and security assistance to Russia in its war by supporting the Russian defense industrial base, including through the provision of dual-use materials and weapons components.” U.S. intelligence believes China is trying to balance its support for Russia to maintain its relationship with Moscow without risking its economic and diplomatic interests globally. According to the assessment, trade between the two countries has increased since the start of the war, and in return, Russia offers China cheaper energy prices and greater access to the Arctic.
Joint exercises between China, Iran, and Russia named “Maritime Security Belt 2024” began on Monday, March 11, with China participating with forty-five units. The joint exercises, which focused on anti-piracy, search and rescue, were organized and conducted near the Gulf of Oman and aimed at jointly maintaining regional maritime security. In addition to military support, Chinese companies play an increasingly critical role in supporting Russia’s struggling economy and boosting its military capabilities, including through the trade of goods for use in its battles with Ukraine. Recent Russian customs data presented in August 2023 show the continued import of drones, helmets, vests, and radios from China, which contribute to supporting the war initiated by President Vladimir Putin over 18 months ago. According to a report by CNBC, Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, states that Chinese authorities are aware of the trade flows.
China has increasingly become an important trading partner for Russia, which seeks to mitigate the impact of economic sanctions imposed by some countries in response to the invasion of Ukraine. The United States has said that Beijing is considering supplying weapons and ammunition to Russia, a claim strongly denied by China. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine two year ago, Western countries imposed strict sanctions on Russia, banning oil imports and exports of high-tech products. Many Western companies completely severed their ties with Russia, and the country’s trade with the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union countries declined over the course of 2022. However, total Chinese trade with Russia reached a record high of $190 billion in 2022, a 30% increase from the previous year. Russian imports from China grew by 13% to $76 billion, and its exports to China increased by 43% to $140 billion.
Nearly half of the Russian government’s annual revenues come from oil and gas, and its sales to European Union countries declined last year due to sanctions. Russia exported twice the amount of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to China in 2022 compared to the previous year, delivered 50% more natural gas via the Power of Siberia pipeline, and increased its crude oil supply by 10%. The Group of Seven advanced economies, along with the European Union and Australia, attempted to impose a global cap on the price of seaborne Russian oil, but China refused to comply and continues to buy Russian crude at market prices. The two countries agreed to build a new gas pipeline (Power of Siberia 2), with the current project starting operation in 2019 under a 30-year contract worth more than $400 billion.
For months, a U.S. report has indicated that China sent military equipment “sufficient to equip an army” to Russia, exploiting a loophole in the Western sanctions imposed on it following the outbreak of war in Ukraine. The reports explained that Chinese manufacturers are providing large quantities of military aid to Russia, including drones, protective gear, and thermal binoculars that can be used to spot targets at night. Last year, Russia imported drones from China worth over $100 million and spent $225 million on ceramic used in manufacturing body armor from Beijing, a 69 percent increase from 2022.
A report prepared by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in the U.S. revealed that the equipment and technology provided by China to Russia for use in the war on Ukraine are becoming “increasingly significant” for Moscow. The recently issued report, which heavily cites open-source data and Western journalistic reports, evaluates the U.S. intelligence community’s view on China, stating it has “become an increasingly important supporter of Russia in its war efforts.” According to the “Intelligence Authorization Act,” the report stated that as of March 2023, “China shipped drones and spare parts to Russia, citing a third party of more than $12 million.” The report mentioned that “state-owned Chinese defense companies are providing Russian defense companies under sanctions with other dual-use technologies used by the Russian military to continue the war in Ukraine, including navigation equipment, jamming technology, and parts of fighter jets.” It added that “semiconductor exports from China to Russia also jumped significantly since 2021, with hundreds of millions of dollars of American-made or branded semiconductors flowing to Russia” despite severe Western sanctions and export restrictions. The report noted that “Chinese companies are likely helping Moscow to evade these sanctions, although it is difficult to ascertain the extent of the assistance.” The report pointed out that “the intelligence community cannot be certain whether Beijing is intentionally intervening in the United States’ ability to monitor exports,” but it says that China “has become a more significant economic partner to Russia since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.”
Following the death of the Wagner Group leader Prigoshin, China reaffirmed its support for Russia after a brief rebellion posed the biggest challenge to Vladimir Putin’s rule, a close partner of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, in their quest for a new world order and a strategic alliance against the United States. The short-lived rebellion by the Wagner mercenary group resonated outside Russia, including in neighboring China, where Xi has built a strong relationship with his authoritarian comrade Putin, thanks to their mutual distrust of the West — a strategic bond that has only deepened in recent years, even after Moscow’s botched invasion in Ukraine. A spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated online: “As Russia’s friendly neighbor and comprehensive strategic partner of coordination for the new era, China supports Russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity.” In recent years, the world’s two most powerful authoritarian leaders have brought their countries’ efforts together in an ambition to challenge what they see as an outdated world imposed by “American hegemony.” The duo declared a “no limits” friendship in February 2022, shortly before Putin launched his war on Ukraine. Since then, China has refused to condemn the invasion and has provided the diplomatic and economic support that Russia desperately needs, a stance that has further strained its relations with Western countries, especially in Europe.
All publishing rights and copyrights reserved to MENA Research Center.
