European heads of government and state are currently meeting in Erdogan’s palaces in Istanbul and Ankara to talk to the Turkish head of state about Ukraine and the Middle East conflict. First, German President Steinmeier traveled to the Bosphorus; the visit was described in the German press as “doner kebab diplomacy“ because he brought a kilo-heavy meat skewer as a gift and a symbol of the successful Turkish fellow citizens in Germany. Shortly afterwards, outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte arrived to show his respect for Erdogan and seek his approval of his candidacy for NATO Secretary General. Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the Greek Prime Minister, was also expected in Ankara for bilateral talks.
Those meetings take place against the backdrop of a diplomatic thaw between Europe and Türkiye. At their most recent EU summit, the heads of state and government surprisingly also held a strategic debate about their difficult relationship with the eternal candidate country. The EU, it says in the final declaration, has a great interest in a stable and secure environment in the Eastern Mediterranean. It’s about “developing a cooperative and mutually beneficial relationship.” After years of standstill and a lot of irritation, we want to work together constructively again.
The EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell presented a report last November in which he called for closer cooperation in the areas of trade, energy, transport and migration management. Borrell also suggested modernizing the customs union in order to provide economic incentives. Ankara is particularly interested in this. Free trade with the EU still only applies to commercial goods; agricultural goods and services are excluded.
The realization that geostrategically there is no way around Türkiye as a regional power is not new. Given the explosive situation in the region, the proximity to Russia, Israel and Iran and also in view of the refugee issue, on which Ankara is cooperating with Brussels, the EU cannot afford to isolate Erdogan. This is one reason why there is a thaw in bilateral relations.
But Erdogan also knows that he needs the Europeans. The economic situation remains difficult and Türkiye urgently needs investors. The upheavals of the last few years stood in the way. In any case, Germany and the EU are by far the country’s largest trading partners. Ankara can hope for direct improvements in economic activity from progress in the customs union. But Ankara also depends on cooperation in terms of security policy. Its strategic goal of self-sufficiency in armament policy still applies, but despite great progress it cannot be achieved in the foreseeable future. The partner of choice for the NATO state Türkiye remains the West. The purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system turned out to be a serious wrong decision.
Since his re-election last year, Erdogan has therefore tried to ensure that relations with the West are as smooth as possible. The new Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan represents this course. In January, Ankara finally gave in on the issue of Sweden joining NATO. In return, Türkiye received the green light from the USA to purchase new fighter jets.
The relationship with Greece, where just a few years ago even armed conflict seemed conceivable, had already been repaired. Thanks to relaxed visa requirements, a record number of Turkish tourists visited Greek islands in the Aegean Sea over the holidays marking the end of the fasting month of Ramadan.
However, the latest decision by the European Council is seen as a setback in Türkiye, especially because of its connection to the Cyprus conflict. The summit declaration says that Ankara’s „constructive engagement” on this issue will be crucial to advancing cooperation. This was not well received in Türkiye. Ankara sees itself as an equal partner and is not prepared to make advance payments on this issue in order to be rewarded by the EU at some point. The complex relationship between Türkiye and the EU cannot be reduced to Cyprus, the Foreign Ministry said. The EU has once again demonstrated that it lacks strategic foresight when it comes to Türkiye.
There is a widespread view in Türkiye that Cyprus has no incentive to compromise because, as an EU member, it has a de facto right of veto in European relations with Türkiye. Instead of making the question, which has been unresolved for decades, a prerequisite, the first step should be to promote cooperation in less controversial areas. The Council’s decision ultimately plays into the hands of those who are against closer cooperation between Europe and Türkiye.
The extent to which Türkiye is prepared to approach the EU on other issues is speculation. When a pro-government journalist wrote a few weeks ago that the ongoing detention of Osman Kavala was of no benefit to Türkiye, hopes arose for a possible release of the country’s most famous political prisoner. The European Court of Human Rights has been calling for this for a long time. If Erdogan actually considered this, then the window is closed again. The Turkish president thinks in a very transactional way when it comes to foreign policy: As with Sweden’s accession to NATO, he expects concrete considerations in return for concessions – the fact that a strengthened northern flank of the defense alliance is in the interest of every member and therefore also Türkiye does not matter.
In Ankara, people are of the opinion that the positive signals to the US were somewhat worthwhile. „Finally we got the new fighter planes!“ With regard to Europe, the situation is different, because negotiations are stalling not only on the customs union, but also on arms issues. The fact that Germany is blocking the sale of Eurofighters to its NATO partner Türkiye, but has no concerns about exporting them to Saudi Arabia, is met with great incomprehension in Ankara. The sky is also darkening again in relations with the USA, not least because of the war in Gaza. Since the defeat in the local elections, Erdogan has increased his already very loud criticism of Israel and the West for domestic political reasons. The trip to Washington planned for May 9th has now fallen victim to this. Ankara has been working towards this first visit with President Biden for years. Then they didn’t think the trip was appropriate and canceled it without further ado. The Foreign Ministry in Ankara said the appointment had been postponed to an unspecified date in the future.
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