“We cannot allow them to have a nuclear weapon,” said the American president at the White House, addressing Tehran. “We are in the final stages with Iran. Something will happen very soon.”
Shortly before, a television interview with Trump had aired in which he announced that he had written a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, urging him to negotiate over the Iranian nuclear program. “I hope you will negotiate because if we have to intervene militarily, it will be terrible,” Trump said. “There are two options: You can deal with Iran militarily or make a deal. I would prefer a deal because I don’t want to harm Iran.”
In Tehran, the letter does not seem to have arrived. At least, according to the Iranian Foreign Ministry, no such letter from Trump had been received. However, Iran’s leader Khamenei delivered a speech that seemed like a direct response to Trump. “The insistence of some rogue foreign governments on negotiations is not about solving problems. Rather, they seek to impose their dominance and demands,” said the Supreme Leader before high-ranking officials in Tehran. The Islamic Republic would not accept these demands.
As during Trump’s first term, Washington is relying on “maximum pressure” to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Trump has imposed new sanctions on Tehran. Apparently, the U.S. government is also considering controlling Iranian oil tankers on the high seas, targeting one of the country’s most important sources of income. Since September, the Iranian currency has lost half its value, prices are rising, and there are repeated power outages.
The 85-year-old Khamenei had already rejected talks with Trump last month when the latter proposed a “nuclear peace agreement.” At the same time, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signaled his willingness to negotiate with Washington. Additionally, Iran responded to Trump’s election victory and U.S. threats by increasing its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to near weapons-grade levels. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran increased its enriched uranium reserves from 182.3 to 274.8 kilograms between November and February.
Recently, concerns in Tehran have grown that Israel might attack Iranian nuclear facilities. In February, diplomatic circles suggested that Washington had given Israel the green light for such an action. Iran’s deterrent power has weakened in recent months. After Hezbollah’s weakening in Lebanon and Hamas’s losses in the Gaza Strip, the Assad regime in Syria has also suffered setbacks.
The weakening of Tehran’s proxies in Lebanon, Gaza, and Damascus puts Iran in a difficult position, as the country has bitter memories of Trump’s first term. In 2020, the Iranian top commander Qassem Soleimani was killed in a U.S. airstrike; in 2018, Trump unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear agreement with Iran. The deal, signed three years earlier by Germany, France, the UK, China, Russia, and the U.S., involved concessions on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. When Trump reinstated these sanctions after withdrawing from the deal, Iran’s economic crisis deepened.
In his speech, Khamenei also criticized European countries that failed to uphold their commitments to compensation payments after Trump’s withdrawal. “Germany, France, and Britain are shameless,” he said. The so-called E3 had recently attempted to revive nuclear talks. In January, they met with Iranian negotiators in Geneva. The agreement is formally set to expire this October, which would also end the option to reinstate strict UN sanctions against Iran without major opposition.
President Pezeshkian, who has been in office since last summer, had raised hopes during his campaign of opening Iran to the West and easing sanctions. However, he faces continuous criticism from Tehran’s ultra-conservative hardliners. In early March, his finance and economy minister, also considered moderate, was dismissed by parliament. Shortly afterward, his vice president for strategic affairs, Javad Zarif, resigned. He stated on the platform X that he had experienced “the bitterest time” of his 40-year political career in recent months, saying he had been insulted, slandered, and threatened even within the government.
The politician is well-regarded in the West. In 2015, he was Iran’s chief negotiator for the nuclear agreement. He also served as Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations in New York, where his two children were born and hold U.S. citizenship. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, he displeased hardliners by criticizing Iran’s dress codes for women and indirectly supporting negotiations with Trump. However, such talks will not be possible without Khamenei’s approval. Pezeshkian’s frustration with the Supreme Leader’s hardline stance is becoming increasingly apparent. “I personally believe that negotiations would be better,” he said in parliament. “But the Supreme Leader has said we will not negotiate with America. So I have also declared that we will not negotiate with America.” It was the first time an incumbent president had openly contradicted Khamenei.
This could have been an attempt to make it clear that his government should not be blamed if negotiations with Washington do not take place. Meanwhile, according to the news outlet “Iran International,” further moderate ministers from Pezeshkian’s cabinet face possible dismissal.
