Numerous international warnings have been issued about the potential repetition of the Libyan scenario in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Some of these warnings were raised by EU Foreign Minister Kaja Kallas as early as mid-December last year, just a week after Assad fled to Russia. The European minister emphasized the need to avoid sectarian violence and steer clear of the models seen in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan. Reports have also warned that the division of geographic control between two opposing factions is one of the key similarities between Syria and Libya. In Libya, the Government of National Unity, led by Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, controls the capital, Tripoli, as the executive authority resulting from the 2021 Geneva Conference.
In Syria, the Syrian Interim Government controls the capital, Damascus, and political decision-making. However, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) still hold vast areas in northeastern Syria, which contain most of the country’s oil and gas fields. Khalifa Haftar in Libya enjoys clear Russian support, with Russian aircraft stationed at Al-Jufra Airbase in central Libya since 2020. Additionally, Russia established the so-called African Corps in 2023, which operates from Al-Khadim Airbase in eastern Libya, alongside Al-Jufra. Similarly, the SDF receives American support, with U.S. forces establishing several bases in SDF-controlled areas since 2015, including the Khrab al-Jir and Rumaylan bases in Hasakah, as well as the Conoco gas field base.
According to a report by the Spanish newspaper _El País_, Syrians are well aware of the mix of interests and ideologies among the groups and countries that toppled the Assad regime. They also understand the difficulty of maintaining a peaceful balance among them. However, now is the time to celebrate liberation, regardless of their ideologies or religious differences. Citizens are replacing official flags with the revolutionary flag featuring four colors and three stars, crying and embracing, as described by the Spanish newspaper. The report added, “Syrians feel overwhelming joy after being freed from a rule that lasted more than half a century, and a regime that responded to the Syrian Spring protests with massacres and Russian airstrikes.” The newspaper noted that Syrians’ emotions are mixed between fear and hope. While there is joy similar to that of Libyans when Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown in October 2011, there is also fear of repeating the disappointment and frustration that followed Libya’s collapse due to clashes between various factions vying for power.
The newspaper cited the story of Dr. Yasser, who spent several years in prison for opposing the Assad regime and later survived an assassination attempt by ISIS members, forcing him to leave his city, Aleppo, in 2016 when government forces retook it from extremist factions. The story of Yasser resembles that of many Syrian families torn apart by the violence and repression of the Assad regime, now reuniting a day after the regime’s fall and Assad’s ouster by opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Now, with Assad out of Damascus, Syrians—90% of whom live below the poverty line according to UN estimates after years of devastating war—are beginning to uncover the vast wealth accumulated by his family over a half-century-long rule built on deep corruption and absolute economic dominance. Despite Western sanctions, the Assad family’s wealth has remained largely intact, hidden in secret accounts and shell companies scattered across the globe. They successfully established a complex system of front companies, intermediaries, and offshore accounts to siphon off key resources from the country, including major sectors like telecommunications, real estate, oil, and banking. In a report described as “hasty” and “incomplete” by Syrian opposition circles but the only one with official status, the U.S. State Department in 2022 estimated the Assad family’s net worth to be between 1billionand1_billionand_2 billion. However, the same report emphasized that this estimate is “inaccurate” and difficult for the U.S. Treasury to independently verify, as it relies on open-source information.
According to reports by NGOs and media outlets, the Assad family managed a complex system that penetrated all sectors of the Syrian economy, including shell companies and front companies used as tools to access financial resources through legitimate corporate structures and non-profit entities. They laundered money acquired from illegal economic activities, including smuggling, arms and drug trafficking, and extortion. However, the British newspaper _Finance Monthly_ recently published staggering estimates suggesting that the total wealth of the Assad regime could range between 60billionand60_billionand_122 billion, factoring in their real estate, oil, and art assets, as well as liquid cash. In late 2019, the _Financial Times_ revealed that Bashar al-Assad’s family owns 18 luxury apartments worth tens of millions of dollars in the “City of Capitals” complex in Moscow, once Europe’s tallest skyscraper, making Assad, who was granted asylum by Russia, the richest refugee in history.
