The presidential system in Türkiye, introduced six years ago, has granted Recep Tayyip Erdogan unprecedented powers. The separation of powers is weakened, and the independence of institutions is severely compromised. The most important threads of Turkish politics converge at the presidential palace in Ankara. However, the Turkish president is not entirely free from external influence. This has been increasingly evident in recent months, as demonstrated by Devlet Bahceli, the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).
The far-right politician regularly releases images containing codes and hidden messages. The public doesn’t always understand their purpose, but it is undisputed that they are displays of power. The ultranationalist MHP, whose sphere includes the notorious Grey Wolves, has been Erdogan’s coalition partner since 2015. Critics have long complained that the party, which recently had only about five percent of the vote, wields disproportionate influence. After the local elections at the end of March, which resulted in the heaviest defeat of Erdogan’s career, rumors surfaced that the president might pivot towards the political center. For the constitutional amendment he is seeking, which would likely secure him another term, Erdogan needs a broader coalition.
According to media reports, following the election defeat at the end of March, Bahceli demanded a tougher stance against the pro-Kurdish DEM party, among other things. The next coup came in June when Erdogan, for the first time in 18 years, visited the headquarters of the largest opposition party, CHP. The Kemalist party was the big winner of the local elections. On the day of the visit, Bahceli posted a photo of his hand holding a file. On one finger, he wore a ring inscribed with “God is enough for me.” According to far-right politician Ümit Özdag, the file allegedly contained documents pointing to shady dealings within Erdogan’s AK Party. Özdag stated in an interview that he knew from internal sources that Bahceli had such evidence and was using it as leverage. The idea that the MHP has access to intelligence documents seems plausible to many Turks. The party is traditionally well-rooted within the security apparatus.
Since the purges following the failed coup attempt in July 2016, the ultranationalists have expanded their influence. Many positions in the civil service, previously held by real or perceived supporters of the Gülen movement, were filled by MHP sympathizers. The Gülen movement is blamed in Türkiye for the coup attempt. Bahceli underscored his influence when he visited a special police unit on July 15, the anniversary of the coup attempt. The commander greeted him by kissing his hand, a photo of which was also shared.
While the gesture is traditionally a sign of respect for elders in Türkiye, its symbolism was clear to everyone. Opposition leader Özgür Özel subsequently warned that the police must be loyal to the entire state, not just one party. He also implied that while the Gülen network in the civil service had been dismantled after the coup attempt, ultranationalist parallel structures continued to exist. Even before that, former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu had warned Erdogan that there were circles that believed they were stronger than the state.
In Türkiye, the connections between security services, ultranationalists, and organized crime are referred to as the “deep state.” This term is particularly associated with the turbulent 1980s and 1990s when the Grey Wolves, with support from above, targeted leftist politicians and minority representatives. But even today, the “deep state” makes headlines. Sinan Ates, the former head of the Grey Wolves, was murdered at the end of 2022. There is strong evidence that it was a power struggle within the ultranationalist scene. Bahceli’s MHP and elements of the security apparatus are also suspected of being involved. The MHP is trying to portray the case as a common crime, and so far, the judiciary is following this narrative. Government opponents suspect that prosecutors and judges are being pressured.
Other posts by the nationalist leader show two commanders of the Syrian National Army (SNA) visiting first Bahceli and then mafia boss Alaattin Cakici. The SNA is a coalition of Syrian rebel groups with up to 100,000 fighters supported by Ankara. The convicted criminal Cakici, who shot his ex-wife in front of their son on his birthday, is a former member of the Grey Wolves and a close ally of Bahceli. The politician personally advocated for Cakici’s release from prison. In the photo with the mafia boss Cakici and the two commanders, a large dagger is also visible, pointing towards the camera. Journalist Mehmet Yilmaz is convinced that this is a warning and a display of power by Bahceli. The SNA commanders and Bahceli are reportedly displeased with Erdogan’s intention to normalize relations with Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. The Kemalist opposition has long called for this step, hoping it would lead to the return of refugees. The SNA would be a loser in this process.
Last month, Bahceli resorted to a more conventional means of political communication. In a surprise press conference, he stated that his party had compiled a list of 154 politicians, journalists, and academics who had allegedly harmed the MHP through unfair means. At the appropriate time, he said, they would hand over the files to the judiciary. Among the most prominent names on the list is Özgür Özel, the leader of the largest opposition party.
The power struggle within the inner circle of political power in Türkiye continues. This also casts a shadow on Erdogan. The question arises: how long will the president tolerate such displays of power from his junior partner?
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