Saudi Ambassador to the UK, Prince Khalid bin Bandar, stated that Saudi Arabia is interested in normalizing relations with Israel following the Gaza war, but any normalization agreement “must lead to the creation of a Palestinian state.” In an interview with the BBC, Prince Khalid bin Bandar revealed that the agreement was “close” when Saudi Arabia suspended negotiations mediated by the United States following the Israeli war on Gaza after attacks by the Islamist terror group Hamas on Israeli sites on October 7. He added that Saudi Arabia still believes in establishing relations with Israel despite the heavy loss of life in Gaza, but he emphasized that this should not come “at the expense of the Palestinian people.” In September, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had said in an interview with an American TV channel, “We are getting closer every day” to an agreement, underscoring that the Palestinian issue is “very important,” and any deal must “ease the plight of the Palestinians.”
Reports indicate that the Saudis requested a suspension of the trilateral talks days after Hamas’ October 7 attacks, which, according to Israeli authorities, resulted in 1,200 deaths and 240 hostages. After a meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in January, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the media that he raised the issue of normalizing relations with Israel. He said, “There is clear interest in moving forward, but it requires the Gaza conflict to end and also a practical path to a Palestinian state.” The Saudi ambassador in London told the BBC, „it is certain that there is interest among the country’s leaders in the agreement, and the agreement was imminent. For us, the outcome must be nothing less than an independent Palestinian state. We still believe in normalizing relations, but this will not be at the expense of the Palestinian people.”
This raises an important question about Saudi Arabia’s willingness to finalize a normalization deal with Israel. Despite some formal opposition, there are numerous benefits for Saudi Arabia, including its own internal and external objectives it seeks to achieve through diplomatic relations with Israel.
However, the Israel newspaper Haaretz warned against missing the opportunity for normalization with Saudi Arabia, given its significant political weight in the region, as this would mean rejecting the chance to emerge from isolation and missing the opportunity to enter the region as a partner and ally. The newspaper explained that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and various members of his government have strongly opposed the Saudi demands that link normalization to a ceasefire, which would also include a hostage deal, non-military administration of Gaza, and, most importantly, Israeli approval for the creation of a Palestinian state along the 1967 borders. Nevertheless, the Israeli newspaper views the intense diplomatic activity between Washington and Riyadh, as well as statements from senior officials on both sides, as indicating that the Israeli-Saudi normalization agreement remains viable despite the Gaza war and its repercussions. Therefore, the newspaper considers that Israeli rejection of this historic opening could represent another missed opportunity for the Jewish state to achieve peace with the leading power in the Arab world.
According to Haaretz, the first missed opportunity with the Saudis dates back to December 1977 when Crown Prince Fahd sent an envoy to Israel with a verbal message for then-Foreign Minister Moshe Dayan. Dayan refused to meet with the envoy without knowing the content of the message in advance, and the messenger returned to his country. The second opportunity occurred in August 1981 when Saudi Arabia proposed an initiative that would have implied recognizing Israel, which Dayan rejected with disdain. The third opportunity came in February 2002 when Israel simply ignored another Saudi effort to communicate, made by Crown Prince Abdullah, which was endorsed by the Arab League. The Arab Peace Initiative, as it became known, was of particular significance because it reflected widespread consensus on recognizing Israel within the 1967 borders and establishing diplomatic relations in exchange for Israel’s acceptance of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.
However, Israel objected to the terms of this plan not only for political and ideological reasons but also due to ignorance of Saudi Arabia’s importance in the Arab and Islamic worlds, viewing its leadership as corrupt and religiously extremist. Had the Arab Peace Initiative been presented to Israel at earlier stages of the conflict, the leadership would likely have considered it a basis for negotiations and reaching an agreement. However, the ongoing extremism within Israeli settlers concerning the occupied territories has motivated countries to avoid peace with Israel without finding a political solution to the Palestinian issue. While the normalization agreements known as the Abraham Accords of 2020 with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco seemingly indicate a detachment of the Palestinian issue from peace efforts, the events of October 7 and their aftermath disproved the claim of being able to ignore the Palestinian problem. The deadly Hamas attack and the ensuing war created a unique opportunity, as many wars have served as turning points. This was the case with the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, which ultimately led to peace with Egypt.
The US newspaper The Wall Street Journal reported by citing American sources involved in the deal, that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is “serious” about reaching an agreement. However, Saudi sources indicate that the Crown Prince has informed his aides that he is not ready to establish full diplomatic relations with Israel, similar to the UAE’s relations. Meanwhile, US officials say President Joe Biden has not yet decided the extent of the concessions he is willing to make, though his focus on finalizing this deal reflects his view that the United States must remain a central player in the Middle East to “contain Iran, isolate Russia due to the situation in Ukraine, and thwart China’s efforts to occupy Washington’s interests in the region.” In exchange for significant American concessions to Saudi Arabia, the Biden administration is seeking assurances from Riyadh that it will distance itself economically and militarily from China, according to US officials.
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