The numbers are striking: According to the latest data from the European border protection agency Frontex, there was a 64 percent decrease in the number of migrants reaching Italy via the central Mediterranean route from January to July 2024 compared to the same period last year. Updated figures from the Italian Ministry of the Interior, as of mid-August 2024, confirm the trend: So far, 37,818 people have arrived this year, compared to 101,637 last year. While over 25,000 people landed in Italy in August 2023 alone, the figure for the current month stands at just under 4,500. Italy’s Interior Minister Matteo Piantedosi expressed his satisfaction when presenting the statistics, and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s party praised the efficiency of the government’s measures. “The time is over when people believed Italy would become Europe’s refugee camp,” said Tommaso Foti, the parliamentary leader of the Brothers of Italy party.
Giorgia Meloni rose to power, in part, by promising to get the migration problem under control. After her victory in the last parliamentary elections, the situation spiraled out of control: The number of arrivals skyrocketed to record levels, appalling conditions in the Lampedusa refugee hotspot made headlines, and the government engaged in a petty standoff with private sea rescue organizations. There were also diplomatic incidents with France, which felt it was bearing the brunt of the Meloni government’s incompetence. And when a shipwreck off the coast of Calabria near Cutro on February 26, 2023, claimed the lives of 94 migrants, including 35 children, it seemed Meloni’s migration policy had hit rock bottom.
Now, all of this seems to have faded. Italy currently has no distressing images of overcrowded reception centers, and reports of dramatic or failed sea rescues appear only sporadically in the media. This reversal in the trend is also due to Meloni’s effort to internationalize the migration issue. She mobilized the EU and initiated a diplomatic effort with North African Mediterranean countries, aiming to accelerate economic development in Africa, which was explicitly supported by the G7 leaders. The migration agreement signed last summer between Tunisia, Italy, and the EU seems to be directly impacting the drop in migration numbers, as shown by data from the think tank ISPI. In return for generous financial and economic aid, the Tunisian government has taken a tougher stance against smugglers and migrants, most of whom target Italy as their first destination.
The downside is visible on the ground. Tens of thousands of migrants from sub-Saharan African countries are currently stranded in Tunisia, particularly around the central coastal city of Sfax. Unlike last year, their situation has worsened. They live in precarious conditions outdoors, without access to food, drinking water, or healthcare. Several civil society organizations that previously supported them have been prosecuted since May of this year, and their leaders are imprisoned.
Simultaneously, the ability to receive money through foreign payment services has been severely restricted, cutting off remittances from families and friends for most migrants. NGOs warn that the situation is worsening the longer it persists. Clashes between groups of migrants and Tunisian residents, who are also suffering from the country’s ongoing economic crisis, are becoming more frequent, as are conflicts among the migrants themselves. Migrants are also being kidnapped by others and released only after ransom payments from relatives. Tunisian officials have repeatedly stressed in the past that they do not want to act as Europe’s border police. However, the number of intercepted migrants has skyrocketed. While around 80,000 people were detained in 2023, there have already been 75,000 in the first seven months of 2024 alone.
According to “Avocats sans frontières,” at least 900 migrants were arbitrarily detained last year without basic legal procedures being followed. Last summer, between 1,000 and 1,700 people were arrested around Sfax and deported to desert regions along the borders with Libya and Algeria. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights recently announced in Geneva that the UN is investigating reports of a mass grave at the Tunisian-Libyan border. The deportations are reportedly ongoing, though it is nearly impossible to assess their full scale. In June, Tunisia also established its own Mediterranean sea rescue zone. According to Tunisia’s defense minister, the aim is to strengthen the effectiveness of Tunisia’s interventions. Aid organizations are critical of this move: There have been repeated reports in the past that the Tunisian coast guard causes migrant boats to capsize or removes their engines.
However, the tougher conditions on the central Mediterranean route are only partially deterring migrants and smugglers from their plans. Frontex figures show that they are simply seeking other routes to reach Europe. Irregular border crossings on the West African route (via the Canary Islands) increased by 154 percent in the first half of the year, while crossings in the eastern Mediterranean rose by 57 percent. Overall, the migration pressure has not eased. Instead, significant shifts seem to be occurring.
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