In July 2024, the Labour Party celebrated a significant victory, ending 14 years of Conservative rule in Britain, a period marked by economic decline and Brexit. Just a few days later, a surprising announcement was made regarding the electoral success of the New People’s Front—a Left-wing electoral coalition—in the second round of elections in France. This led to the collapse of the far-Right’s hopes for power after they had made notable gains and secured first place in the first round of the elections. Earlier, the far-Right had won in the European Parliament elections for representatives of France.
This development has raised questions about whether Europe might witness the dominance of the far-Left as a reaction to the rise of the far-Right, and as a form of retribution against the current centrist governments, which are largely blamed by the people for high inflation rates and the decline of various sectors.
This essay highlights the reasons for the Left’s victory in both France and the UK, despite the progress made by the Right in the European Parliament elections. It also examines the impact of this shift on future European policies, the commitment towards the war in Ukraine and the Gaza War and attempts to describe the current reality and its impact on the European economy and its cohesion.
Reasons for the Left’s Victory
The European Left managed to secure victories in both Britain and France by advocating for affordable housing, free access to education, healthcare, and public transportation. It appears that the Left has recognized the necessity of focusing on the social interests of the working class to take effective action against the far-Right in Europe.
Although the European Parliament elections saw a victory for the far-Right in several countries, in Sweden and Finland the Greens and Left-wing parties gained significant votes. On the other hand, the success of the Labour Party in Great Britain is unrelated to the European elections, as the country has not been a member of the European Union since Brexit. Unlike the elections in France, the elections in Britain were planned, and it was the Right time for a change in government. Therefore, the success of the Left should not be interpreted as a reaction to the European elections.
Regarding the difference between European and national elections, observers note that the national parliament is, of course, a different entity from the European Parliament. Voters perceive these two bodies differently. Moreover, the rules governing these elections differ as well: while the European Parliament is elected proportionally, a majority vote applies to French national elections.
In the French elections, the population strategically positioned themselves, making it possible to defeat the Right within a majority system. Voter turnout was significantly higher in the national elections than in the European ones, and, in some cases, the voters in these two elections were different.
However, polarization became evident in both the European and national elections in France and Britain. Despite the success of the Left in France, Right-wing populists around Marine Le Pen achieved their best results on a national level. Even if the Right’s expectations were not fully met, they still won far more seats than they had a few years ago.
The shift in success between the Left and Right is always noticeable, as polarization remains dominant. The growing number of parties also seems to be an important factor, as parties that had never occupied a seat in parliament before are now able to win several seats.
Frustrated voters are increasingly seeking alternative solutions to their problems. It has become evident that European people are increasingly rejecting what is called the political center. More than three out of five French voters supported parties considered to have extreme views in the first round. Many of these, whether described as far-Right or far-Left, are united in their hostility to the center and what they see as its elitist style of governance. They claim that centrist policies are no less extreme—such as tax policies that have led to stagnant growth and an unemployment rate of 7.4%, immigration policies that have allowed a significant increase in asylum applications since 2015, and foreign policies that risk war with Russia and demand more resources from France. From their perspective, the elites running the country are far removed from the general populace.
Previously, when David Cameron was Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, he organized the 2016 referendum on Britain’s membership in the European Union. Many supporters of Brexit argued that a fully sovereign British government would be better able to control immigration, especially illegal immigration.
However, this issue persists, and the number of arrivals via so-called small boats is much higher than when the government first started reporting numbers in 2018. Conservative voters praised the plan to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda to process their asylum claims, but it sparked a legal storm. So far, every planned flight to Rwanda has been stopped by court rulings. The Labour Party has announced that it would end this initiative if it won the elections.
The Role of Foreign Policies
Another difference concerns foreign policy, especially the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In fact, since at least 2019, the foreign policy views of the National Front Party (now known as the National Rally) have become closer to the mainstream, particularly after the party dropped its call for France to leave the European Union. Despite relatively good relations with Russia (and allegations of dubious dealings), the National Rally’s rhetorical commitments to Ukraine differ from Macron’s primarily in their refusal to supply long-range missiles and the potential deployment of French troops to train Ukrainians in-country—something that few of France’s NATO allies took seriously. Regarding the war in Gaza, both the National Rally and Macron similarly emphasize Israel’s Right to self-defense.
Meanwhile, the Left supports Ukraine. The Left-wing coalition has promised to “defend peace in Europe,” proposing to supply the Ukrainian military with “necessary weapons,” cancel Ukraine’s foreign debt, and “seize the assets of oligarchs who contribute to the Russian war effort.” However, the Left-wing movement strongly supports the Palestinian cause and opposes the war on Gaza.
This poses a challenge for a potential coalition between the Left and the center and may explain Macron’s hesitation to take a more decisive stance on Gaza. After all, France is home to one of the largest Muslim communities in Europe, as well as the largest Jewish community. Moreover, the wars in Gaza and Ukraine have disrupted global trade and security in a way that could drive more asylum seekers to Europe, fleeing hunger and violence. Many of them, dreaming of stability, will come from Africa and seek to settle in France.
Therefore, it is not surprising that both the National Rally and the New People’s Party highlight immigration in their campaigns and criticize the hard-won EU Migration and Asylum Pact, which aims to prevent a repeat of the 2015 crisis. The National Rally wants to cut spending on migrants, revoke certain Rights, and address security issues related to the Mediterranean migration route. On the other hand, the National Rally sees the key to security as improving the integration of migrants and refugees.
As in France, it is unlikely that policy on Ukraine will change in Britain following the sweeping victory of the Labour Party. It is clear that both Labour and the ruling Conservative Party stand firmly behind Kyiv, promising to continue training Ukrainian soldiers and providing them with advanced weaponry to defend the country.
In the Middle East, the picture is clearer. Both parties support Israel’s right to self-defense. However, a significant youth wing within the Labour Party has called on Israel to halt the bombing of Gaza and urged the government to use its influence to protect Palestinians and achieve a long-term ceasefire. On the Conservative side, Foreign Secretary David Cameron stated that Israel will only be safe when there is “long-term security and stability for the Palestinian people.” He is working with Arab states to devise a peace plan that both sides can accept.
The wars in Gaza and Ukraine—not to mention the broader confrontation between Russia and the West—appear to be reshaping the global order. It is unlikely that the elections in France and Britain will significantly alter either government’s policy towards Ukraine, but Gaza presents a more complex issue. Public disapproval of Israeli operations in Gaza is likely to grow in both countries as the war continues. This may influence how Paris and London position themselves in relation to Washington’s Middle East policy, which is also continuously evolving ahead of the November elections. A rift among the three allies over the Middle East would benefit Russia, which is doing everything it can to deepen divisions within the Western alliance.
Economic Challenges
In its election manifesto, the Labour Party in the UK committed to reducing debt as a percentage of GDP over a five-year period. This implies that the Labour government’s more generous spending policies will not be feasible without significant tax increases. However, given the exclusion of increases in income tax, national insurance, and VAT, Labour’s spending ambitions are likely to be somewhat restrained.
In France, there are numerous indications that President Macron might form a coalition with the far-Left. This possibility has led to significant volatility in European markets since the announcement of the elections. However, it is important to note that none of these more populist parties have called for France to leave the EU or the euro. The parties gaining support in the recent European elections share a common focus: immigration policy and reversing austerity measures, which emphasize balanced budgets and national debt reduction.
According to many economists, the EU’s second-largest economy is facing tough times, with fears of economic slowdown and a shift away from a long-term sustainable fiscal policy. Moreover, from their perspective, it is unclear when an effective government, capable of securing the necessary support in the National Assembly, will be formed. Despite winning the elections, there are significant internal disagreements within the French Left-wing coalition. Additionally, the French are not accustomed to forming coalitions and will now need to learn how to make concessions.
French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire warned of a “financial crisis” and “economic downturn” in France following the unexpected victory of the Left-wing coalition. Le Maire explained that “implementing the New People’s Front program would undermine the results of our policies over the past seven years.” He described their program as “excessive and ineffective.”
Foreign policy spokesperson for the Union parliamentary group in the Bundestag, Hardt, believes it is conceivable that Macron could still avoid “severe opposition” against him. The CDU politician stated, “Perhaps the President’s political camp will still be able to secure a relative majority, for example, in a coalition with the Republicans, and continue to provide a Prime Minister while integrating individual forces from the Left-wing coalition.”
In Britain, none of the architects of Brexit from the 2016 EU referendum remain in the political scene today. Boris Johnson, the last prominent figure from the leave campaign, vanished from politics when he resigned as MP in June 2023. Three years earlier, he had handed over the prime ministership to his party colleague Liz Truss. After her resignation in October 2022, Rishi Sunak assumed government responsibility as leader of the Conservative Party.
All three shared core support for Brexit, and observers believe the Conservative failure was due to unmet promises made when leaving the EU. There was no economic recovery, nor was immigration to the UK curbed. With Keir Starmer becoming Labour leader and Prime Minister, this may significantly impact the relationship with the EU.
In 2016, 51.9% of Britons voted to leave the EU, narrowly surpassing the 48.1% who voted to remain. Much has changed in the country since then. Spiegel reported that in 2023 alone, Brexit would result in a £140 billion reduction in the country’s gross value added. Additionally, according to Tagesschau, food prices are rising significantly due to import costs. The additional costs are expected to reach €230 million annually.
For this reason, London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s conclusion was that “Brexit is not working,” as reported by Der Spiegel in a speech earlier this year. He supports bringing the country closer to the EU. It appears Prime Minister Starmer shares the same view. In mid-June, he criticized the trade agreements with the EU negotiated by former Prime Minister Johnson. Starmer stated in one of his speeches, “I think many businesses will say we need something that works better for us.” He still rules out returning to the EU: “We made the decision to leave the EU, so we will not go back.”
This means that the goal is solely to establish a closer relationship with the EU rather than returning to the single market or customs union. According to Politico, this is primarily an electoral campaign tactic to win over Brexit supporters. To win the fiercely contested northern and central English regions, Starmer, a former Brexit opponent, must also distance himself from any return to the EU.
Impact on the European Union
According to Olivia Lazard, a fellow at Carnegie Europe, the unexpected defeat of the far Right in the second round means that Macron “will retain his credibility,” while France avoids “reverting to a type of sovereignty and nationalism narrative that clearly conflicts with Europe.” She added, “France remains a key bastion in Europe against the rise of the far Right and against Russian influence.” This suggests that Europe will remain relatively secure regarding defense issues. The victory of Marine Le Pen’s far-Right National Rally in the second round, after leading in the first round, would have posed an additional threat to the EU’s support for Ukraine. The National Rally has historic ties with Russia and promised to curb French aid to Ukraine. The party obtained a controversial €9 billion loan from a Russian bank in 2014, despite sanctions on Moscow due to the illegal annexation of Crimea.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk was among the first of the 27 EU leaders to respond to the opinion polls. Tusk stated on social media platform X: “In Paris, enthusiasm; in Moscow, disappointment; in Kyiv, relief,” and added, „let’s just be happy in Warsaw.”
European leaders, especially in the eastern wing, feared that President Macron’s hand in foreign policy would weaken if he were forced into a power-sharing arrangement with a far-Right government, which would in turn weaken the financial and military support France provides to Kyiv.
However, the leader of the far-Left party “France Unbowed”—a part of the victorious New People’s Front Left-wing coalition—has been accused in the past of adopting a sympathetic stance toward Russia. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a prominent defender of the French military, stated in February that “it is time to negotiate peace in Ukraine with mutual security terms” and has consistently opposed sending advanced weapons to Kyiv.
Support for Ukraine is seen as one issue that could fracture the New People’s Front coalition, which integrates various forms of socialism from soft Left to hard Left. Letitia Langlois, a researcher at the University of Angers, believes that the Socialist Party from the center-Left and its leader Raphael Glucksmann could play a crucial role in bolstering the pro-Ukraine coalition. Langlois explained, “Raphael Glucksmann, who is very supportive of Ukraine, will likely try to temper the rhetoric of the France Unbowed party.” She added, “There is a consensus in the country around supporting Ukraine and defending democratic values against an aggressive and authoritarian state.” Langlois believes it will be difficult for France to adopt a government position that undermines France’s support for Ukraine as it stands.
On the other hand, the Left-wing coalition has called for a climate plan aimed at achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 and wants France to become a leader in renewable energies such as offshore wind and hydropower. This has been welcomed by environmental parties across Europe. The National Rally and its European allies had pledged to cancel the European Green Deal before the European elections. This position has also been adopted by many center-Right forces in Europe, leading to widespread criticism that traditional conservatives are allowing far-Right forces to encroach into the mainstream.
Conclusions
- The upcoming electoral battles in Europe appear to be between the far Left and the far Right, with center-Right politics, which was once seen as a rational middle ground, in retreat. However, it is still too early to say that Europe has completely changed, as the political map within parliaments has not yet shifted. The center-Right still dominates the European Parliament and some national parliaments. Nevertheless, the changes in France and the UK have significant implications for international politics, given that both countries hold seats on the UN Security Council and are nuclear powers, meaning they are deeply involved in international decision-making.
- Europe is witnessing a notable rise in the far Right, which is no longer as stigmatized as before, reflecting the aspirations of millions in the continent who wish to maintain their distinct national identities amidst growing numbers of legal and illegal migrants. Consequently, Left and center-Left parties find themselves in a dilemma. They do not want to be seen as yielding to far-Right demands in their policies, nor can they resist the demographic reality that has made the far Right prominent in election results. The recent elections in both the UK and France indicate that the European electorate is swinging between Right and Left, driven more by economic realities affecting daily life rather than ideological and intellectual motivations as in the past.
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