The Middle East region is a major hub of the world trade network, thanks to its strategic positioning linking the continents of Asia, Africa, and Europe. Among the vital waterways in this area, the Red Sea is one of the most important marine arteries facilitating the movement of ships between East and West. However, in recent years, the Red Sea has witnessed increasing tensions that have significantly affected trade in the Middle East, leading to a trade crisis that needs to be highlighted and understood.
Since the Israeli attack on the Gaza Strip, the Red Sea has witnessed numerous tensions, particularly with the announcement by the Al-Houthi group in Yemen of attacks on all commercial vessels bound for or belonging to Israel, and the consequent attacks by United States and British forces on Houthi militia positions in Yemen.
The Red Sea region is experiencing numerous ongoing crises due to regional tensions in the Middle East, as it is known for its geopolitical complexities and regional conflicts, which often affect maritime security in the Red Sea. Conflicts in Yemen and tensions between neighboring countries have a direct impact on freedom of navigation and trade.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank have warned that the war in Gaza and the associated regional escalation, which affects the movement of cargo in the Red Sea leading to the Suez Canal, pose a threat to the world economy.
IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva explained that the war between Israel and Hamas since October 7 had already affected the economy of the Middle East and North Africa region, fearing that its indirect effects on the world economy would be felt if the fighting were prolonged.
At the World Summit of Governments in the United Arab Emirates, an annual gathering of State leaders and businessmen in Dubai, Georgieva said: “I am more afraid than ever that the conflict will be prolonged, because if it continues, the risk of expansion will increase.”
“We now witness in the Suez Canal the danger of its expansion,” she added, in reference to the attacks by the Houthi rebels in Yemen on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea, which affect the traffic of navigation in the strategic area through which 12% of world trade passes.
While last year’s December 2023 data from the German Independent Institute of Kyle showed that the Iranian-backed Houthi attacks on cargo vessels in the Red Sea caused the volume of containers transported there to fall by more than half, or 70%. World trade also declined by $1.3% from November to December 2023.
The latest update of the index data indicated a continuing slight negative trend in world trade and trade among major economies. The conflict in the Middle East, particularly attacks on container vessels in the Red Sea, is likely to be one of the reasons for poor circulation during the month.
European exports fell by 2.0 per cent, and imports by 3.1 per cent in December 2023. German exports also fell by 2.0 per cent, and imports by 1.8 per cent in the same month, continuing the vulnerable phase of recent months.
The Al-Houthi militia also view Israel as an enemy based on several ideological and political factors. These include regional alliances, mutual support between Israel and some Arab States that oppose the Houthis, and the religious and political attitude of the Houthis.
There are some reasons why the Houthis are targeting Israeli vessels:
- Ideological position: The Houthis, as a movement with zediyah roots (a branch of Shia), express strong opposition to Israel on ideological and religious grounds, considering Israel as an enemy of the Islamic nation because of the Palestinian cause and the occupation of the Palestinian territories.
- Solidarity with the Palestinian cause: As part of their political and religious identity, they show solidarity with the Palestinians and regard Israel as a major enemy of Arab and Muslim peoples. This solidarity drives them to target Israeli interests as a means of resistance.
- In response to regional alliances: The growing relations between Israel and some Arab States, especially those that oppose the Houthis and support the internationally recognized Yemeni government, may be a motive for the Houthis to target Israeli interests as a means of responding to these alliances.
- Political messages: Targeting Israeli vessels can be a means for the Houthis to demonstrate their strength and extend their conflict beyond Yemen‘s borders, thus attempting to send messages to the international community and States supporting Israel.
- The search for legitimacy and support: By targeting Israel, the Houthis may also seek the support and legitimacy of groups and States that share their anti-Israel stance, especially in the Arab and Islamic world.
- Iranian support: Al-Houthi militia are also trying to implement Iranian plans in the area, where the militia acts like Hizbullah in Lebanon, as Iran‘s agent in the region, to execute the agenda of the Iranian regime.
Iran‘s expansionist ambitions and plan to export Shia thought to the region, following the success of the Khomeini revolution, led Iran to forge a relationship with the Al-Houthi group in Saada in northern Yemen, where it financially and militarily supported it after the rebel group‘s adoption of Iran’s foreign sectarian thinking on Yemen.
Iranian support for the Al-Houthi militia began to appear on the scene in the 1980s and 1990s, beginning with the polarization of the leadership and supporters of the movement and sending them to Iranian religious education summit, as well as the military and financial support of the rebel group, which wanted to turn it into an arm in the south of the Arab island and to take control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, one of the world most important shipping corridors.
As Iran’s support for the Al-Houthi militia peaked during the coup d’état on legality in Yemen, where the Houthi did not find it critical to reveal their relations with Iran, which became a strategic partner, Iranian aircraft landed at Sana’a airport, loaded with Revolutionary Guard elements, as well as military materials and technology.
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