Earlier this month, snap legislative elections took place in France, where the French were invited by President Emmanuel Macron to elect 577 deputies after his presidential majority witnessed an important defeat during the European Union elections in May.
The leitmotif of the elections was the “barrage against the far right” incarnated by the Rassemblement National (RN) party. The Left and Far Left parties swiftly joined forces to form the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP). And together with the presidential majority, represented by Ensemble, they decided to withdraw candidates in favour of the NFP or the presidential majority in districts where an RN candidate could possibly win.
The strategy seemed to pay off, as the RN arrived third, winning only 142 seats, which significantly contrasted with projections promising more than 200 seats in the National Assembly. Hence, the “worst” was avoided, but the joy and concord didn’t last long in the victor’s camp.
Forming the unformable
The NFP alliance, composed of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise (LFI), Marine Tondelier’s Ecologists (EELV), Olivier Faure’s Socialist Party (PS), and Fabien Roussel’s Communist Party (PCF), came first, securing 180 seats. This is 49 seats more than NUPES — NFP’s predecessor — had in 2022. Meanwhile, the president’s bloc, Ensemble, came second with 159 seats, 86 seats less than in 2022, thus becoming the loser of this election.
After the “moment of clarification” announced by Emmanuel Macron, the political forces have been distributed almost evenly, with every bloc — Left, Center, and Right — obtaining one-third of the seats each, resulting in no “clarification” at all. This situation drastically differs from the 2022 elections, where the presidential camp obtained 245 seats, winning an important majority, although not the absolute majority of 289 out of 577, but close to it.
Only on 23 July, the nominal “winners” NFP managed to reach an agreement on the candidature for a prime minister’s office — Lucie Castets. But prior to this, the only consensus the Left was able to produce was the candidature for the election of a new president of the National Assembly — a communist, André Chassaigne. However, Yaël Braun-Pivet from the presidential camp managed to maintain her seat as National Assembly president. Worth noting that the crisis within the NFP is so profound that Socialists and Communists were discussing the arrangement of a vote within the alliance to choose a nominee for the Prime Minister’s office.
Moreover, earlier this week, the President of the French Republic decided to finally approve the resignation of Gabriel Attal and his government — something he refused to do the day after the election results were announced — thus complicating, even more, the tense political climate in the wake of the Olympic Games that France hosts at the end of July. But, until the new Government is formed, young Gabriel Attal will remain in his office to keep up with the current affairs.
Uncertain future ahead
Emmanuel Macron will face a cohabitation period until the presidential election in 2027, where the Government will be led by a different political force than his own. This situation will limit the President’s power and necessitate cooperation between the executive and legislative branches. The forthcoming Government is expected to be short-lived, potentially lasting only a few months to a year, and will not have the mandate to implement significant reforms, especially populist ones proposed by the LFI, such as higher taxes, increased minimum wages, and facilitating migration in a country already facing challenges in this area.
Macron might consider appointing Lucie Castets, the NFP nominee, as Prime Minister. However, the French Constitution does not require him to choose a Prime Minister proposed by the NFP. Additionally, a recent Elabe poll for BFMTV shows that 58% of French citizens oppose the nomination of Ms. Castets, holding Macron responsible for the current political crisis and preferring a “political truce” during the Olympic Games.
During the Left’s delay in advancing their nominee, Macron explored different options for forming a coalition, including the Republicans as potential partners. However, the Republicans have firmly positioned themselves in opposition and presented 73 measures across 13 bills aimed at “finding solutions and putting something positive on the table”, indicating their intention to support legislation aligning with their vision, thus being a constructive opposition.
The most plausible scenario, however, is that France will wait much longer to see a new government since the Constitution does not set a timeframe for nominating a new Prime Minister, and Emmanuel Macron’s attempts to navigate the situation in a most favourable for his way. If the new Government will not be able to function properly, the new snap legislative elections could be announced within 14 months. But whatever happens next, political stability in France appears distant, with the next opportunity to address the “House divided” being the presidential election in 2027.
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