The Russian President’s recent visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Iran once again shows the Kremlin’s political strategy, which is always directed inwards and outwards: On the one hand, he wants to signal to his people that he is seen abroad as a welcome guest, but on the other hand he wants to get the oil-rich states of the Gulf on his side, especially with the help of oil exports. The Middle East conflict only plays a minor role for the dictator from Moscow.
There was no red carpet for Vladimir Putin when he landed in Abu Dhabi for a state visit. This happened most recently during a visit by a delegation from Israel. Putin didn’t seem to be bothered by it; for him, the trip itself was a great success, showing that he wasn’t just sitting alone at big tables in the Kremlin, but was also welcome in the world, despite Western sanctions because of the invasion in Ukraine. The Kremlin also provided the corresponding wording to accompany the trip: The trip “shows that Russia is not internationally isolated and has a large number of partners and friends in different parts of the world. The Persian Gulf is one of the regions in which we can demonstrate this most effectively.”
The President of the Emirates, Muhammad Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, visited Putin in Saint Petersburg in mid-June. He also gave the Russian ruler a splendid reception at home. Muhammad bin Zayed referred to Putin as “my friend,” according to a transcript of the conversation distributed by the Kremlin. The Emirates are therefore still ready to get involved in humanitarian issues and to help “stabilize the situation”. The Gulf state has not only become a new home for Russians who want to avoid military service. Russian money has also flowed there in abundance. The Emirates have also resisted pressure from the United States and Europe not to supply Moscow with goods that Russia could also use for military purposes.
The situation is similar in Saudi Arabia. There is room for cooperation not only on the issue of oil production. As in the Emirates, there is great concern in Saudi Arabia that the Gaza war could escalate into a conflagration and destabilize the entire region. The Arab states therefore want to end the war as quickly as possible and work towards a two-state solution. In Riyadh, Putin met Arab Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman. The official Saudi news agency praised the “common visions” of Putin and bin Salman as well as the “mutual interest” that characterizes the relations between the two countries.
It is only the fifth foreign trip this year for the Russian president; before that he had visited China, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Belarus, all loyal partners who were not bothered by the fact that Putin was wanted with an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, which meant a few trips were impossible, like the one at the Brics summit in South Africa in August. Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, on the other hand, are not contracting states to The Hague. He wouldn’t have been arrested at the climate conference – he’s simply not interested in it. However, Putin didn’t travel to the climate summit in Dubai, just a few kilometers away. Parts of the event site are international territory and are controlled by UN security personnel – but this would have had little consequences for Putin, as the court in The Hague is not part of the UN system. It’s probably just the case that climate issues are not particularly high on his agenda. It was enough for Ukrainian delegates at COP 28 that Putin spent at least a few hours in the same country as them.
In recent years, Putin and the Kremlin have always been there to identify and, if possible, enlarge possible points of failure in various regions of the world with their long-standing partners in the US or Europe. In countries like Mali, the Central African Republic and perhaps Chad next, the Kremlin has been quite successful using manageable resources. In many parts of Africa, Russia was able to establish itself in the minds of people as a somewhat anti-imperialist alternative to the West.
Putin mainly traveled to the Gulf because of the oil. The price has developed very much to the disadvantage of the OPEC Plus countries in recent weeks, especially because the US is flooding the market. A ton of crude oil currently costs around $77, up from almost $95 at the end of September. OPEC’s announcement that it would limit production volumes has so far had little effect because there are doubts as to whether all members would adhere to it; there are apparently coordination difficulties with Angola and Nigeria. Through his visits to the Gulf, Putin shows that Russia is at least in agreement with the United Arab Emirates and the Saudis when it comes to production volumes.
At the meeting with ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan in Abu Dhabi, Putin politely thanked him for supporting the construction of a Christian Orthodox church. But he couldn’t think of anything new to say about the war in Gaza other than renewing the demand for an immediate ceasefire. Putin later flew to Iran, where Hamas’s biggest supporters are based. If he wanted, he could try to mediate there. But maybe he isn’t so unhappy about the war in Gaza after all. This threatens to weaken Ukraine, whose supporters are also Israel’s supporters, who now have to divide their resources between two countries in war. Ukraine’s counteroffensive is now being described in dark tones both in Russia and in the West. The Gaza war has captured the attention of the West and is giving Putin new opportunities to emerge as the leader of a “global south.”
Putin’s “working visit,” as his trip to the Gulf was declared, also had symbolic significance. The Russian state press saw this as a new sign that Washington’s efforts to isolate Russia had failed. Putin has restricted his international travel activities over the past three years, first because of the corona pandemic, then in the wake of the war of aggression against Ukraine and, since last spring, probably also because of the arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court. The Kremlin’s foreign policy spokesman said before the trip that it would be important to “our colleagues” to hear Putin’s opinion on the “evolution of the situation” in Ukraine. In addition, both the Emirates and Saudi Arabia are to become members of the BRICS association next year under Russian chairmanship.
Moscow also rejoiced that trade volumes with both countries are growing and highlighted energy cooperation as a topic of talks in Abu Dhabi and later Riyadh. Moscow coordinates with Saudi Arabia in the OPEC+ format. Russia depends on high oil prices to finance the increased costs of armaments and social services caused by the Ukrainian war. The Saudi crown prince and de facto ruler Muhammad Bin Salman is also dependent on abundant oil revenues to advance the economic restructuring work in his kingdom. Both have coordinated their production cuts in recent years, both as part of OPEC+ and with side agreements, to support high oil prices.
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