For the Middle East region, it is one of the most difficult crises in modern history,” said the UAE representative at one of the last meetings in the UN Security Council, in which the Emirates currently have a non-permanent seat. She even spoke of a “test for humanity”. An uncontrolled slide into regional war, she warned, could impact stability around the world. These sentences express an unease that has also affected the other Arab Gulf states. The war in Gaza jeopardizes the country’s future plans – which in turn are crucial for the future of the entire region.
The Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman have been in a phase of de-escalation for a very long time, which has allowed them to concentrate on advancing reform programs that are intended to secure a future beyond oil and gas revenues. However, the conflicts in the region were at best calmed down, not resolved. The Gulf states are also diversifying their strategic relationships and no longer want to clearly side with the United States in the major conflict with China and Russia. Saudi Arabia and its regional arch-rival Iran had become closer again. But the major terrorist attack by the Palestinian Hamas – which has been supported by the regime in Tehran for many years – and the Israeli counterattack have suddenly torn the Gulf monarchies from their thaw dreams.
“The clock is running backwards again,” said Mohammed Baharoon, director of the Dubai Public Policy Research Center think tank. “What is now happening in the region goes against everything the Emirates have worked for in recent years.” The political leadership in Abu Dhabi is in a more delicate situation than those in Saudi Arabia or Qatar. As part of the Abraham Accords 2020, it normalized relations with Israel under US mediation; it was about economic partnership with a high-tech location and the shared threat from Iran. Sympathy for Israel was evident in the initial reactions to the Hamas attack: condolence calls were even made to Jerusalem. The opposition to the Islamists of the Muslim Brotherhood, from which Hamas emerged, is particularly noticeable in Abu Dhabi. The Emirates see this confirmed by the Hamas massacres. The UAE cabinet condemned it as “barbaric and despicable.”
However, Israel’s military response in Gaza, the continuous bombardment and the thousands of civilians killed have also called into question the position in the Emirates. The government in Abu Dhabi speaks of “collective punishment” of the Palestinians, echoing the mood of the population. Horrible images of the Gaza war are shown on an endless loop on Arabic television channels, and the controlled press also reports in detail about the suffering of Palestinian civilians. Influential persons have expressed their sharp criticism on social media, and deep frustration can be heard in conversations with Emiratis. Sentences like: “Of course there is no excuse for Hamas’ attacks, but the Israeli government is also extremist.”
However, the Emirati leadership is not considering ending peace efforts with Israel. It is said that at most it can be frozen. Government officials say clearly that the decision is irreversible because once the leadership has made a decision, it stands by it. The normalization with Jerusalem is supported by two pillars: an economic one, which has continued to expand despite the Gaza war, and a political one, which has always been weak and is now likely to become even weaker. Iran remains the biggest threat and strategic challenge for the UAE.
But when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks of a “new Middle East” that the war will bring about, that does not necessarily mean that the Emirates or other Arab Gulf states will join an American-Israeli camp. The unconditional US support is viewed very critically against the background of thousands of civilians killed in Gaza.
The French demand to forge an international coalition against Hamas based on the model of the alliance against the terrorist organization “Islamic State” is also not met with approval in the Emirates. “On the one hand they say the conflict should not be regionalized, and then they say it should be internationalized – that doesn’t make sense,” said Mohammed Baharoon. It was not for nothing that the leadership avoided the word terrorism in its condemnations of Hamas, he explains. It would be more difficult to escape from an anti-terror coalition. Baharoon goes on to say that the government’s reluctance is based on concerns that religious polarization and radicalization will occur. Nobody could want a “clash of cultures”. But the mood across the region is moving in this direction.
The Gaza war, however, is bringing the strong men in the Gulf closer together again: Muhammad Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the Emirates, and Muhammad Bin Salman Al Saud, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. The relationship between the Emirati and the Saudi de facto ruler was recently considered tense. It is now being said from circles close to the government in the Emirates that Abu Dhabi’s reluctance towards the Saudi move to negotiate alone in the Yemen conflict with the Houthi rebels supported by Tehran is waning in view of the fear of regional escalation. Even if the interests of Yemeni allies of the Emirates are left out.
Like the Emirates, Saudi Arabia is forced to perform a balancing act: On the one hand, there is also outrage in the kingdom about Israel’s warfare in the Gaza Strip. And public pressure on the leadership in both Abu Dhabi and Riyadh is likely to increase if Israeli ground operations in Gaza continue to fight against civilians. Saudi Arabia also does not want to give up efforts to rapprochement with Iran. Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former intelligence chief who no longer holds a government position but is a member of the ruling family, recently publicly criticized “indiscriminate” bombing by the Israeli Air Force. And he made it clear that the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement was not off the table, despite the increasing tensions with Tehran. Diplomats say the same thing about a possible normalization of relations with Israel. However, the negotiations on this are likely to be more difficult and more discreet than before.
The Saudi leadership is determined to carry on as before despite the Gaza war. Elites recently met at a large investor forum in the Saudi capital, the “Davos in the desert”. The Crown Prince also came as a spectator. Khalid al-Falih, his minister in charge of attracting foreign capital, praised investment opportunities in the kingdom, particularly in the futuristic megacity of Neom. But he couldn’t help but address “the elephant in the room.” The Gaza war “overshadows everything else,” he said to the assembled international business leaders. “But for their good and for the good of humanity, we must align the compass with the well-being of our people.”
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