A very rare picture: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who traveled to Athens for a state visit, applauded Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. He does the same as the guest from Ankara. This is how the performance of two men comes to an end, whose countries were anything but friendly until recently. Mitsotakis and Erdoğan, who for years seemed to dislike each other personally, applaud each other. The Greek had previously met the Turk, walked down the steps of his official residence in Athens and warmly greeted Erdoğan. Mitsotakis obviously wanted pictures of that day to remain.
Erdoğan wanted to turn over a “new page,” Erdoğan told the Greek newspaper Kathimerini. He told his “friend Kyriakos”: “If you don’t threaten us, we won’t threaten you.” According to Erdoğan, Turks and Greeks have lived together for centuries, and the Greeks certainly know “how loving we can be when we extend our hand in friendship.” It was a special visit. Not just because no Turkish president came to Athens for decades. After the Cyprus crisis in 1974, when Turkish troops occupied the north of the island and the Greek residents had to flee, there was an ice age between Ankara and Athens. Erdoğan himself was last in the Greek capital in 2017. After that, the conflicts between the two countries really began.
Erdoğan also gave an interview to the Greek press in 2017 – a less friendly one. He called for the Lausanne Treaty, which regulates the border between Turkey and Greece, to be reconsidered. In the years since, Turkish F-16 jets have repeatedly flown over Greek territory in the Aegean that Türkiye claims. In the summer of 2020, Erdoğan had a drill ship explore for gas south of Rhodes, escorted by navy ships. The Greek navy also left. For days, the countries faced a military escalation. In Greece, people have not forgotten how Erdoğan had buses full of refugees brought to the Greek border. There was talk in Athens of “hybrid warfare”. Erdoğan also indulged in rhetoric: The Greeks were probably nervous because the new Turkish Tayfun missile could also hit Athens. Or the sentence that they will “come one night” – a threat against the Greek islands off the Turkish coast. During a visit to the US, Mitsotakis asked that the US government deny Türkiye the fighter jets it was hoping for. Whereupon Erdoğan made it known that Mitsotakis no longer existed for him and that he “never wanted to meet him again.”
Now, before the visit to Athens, the Turkish president didn’t want to know anything more about it. His threat to the island was directed against terrorists “who endanger our security”, not against Greece itself. The neighbor is “a valued member of our alliance”, i.e. Nato. Both politicians signed a joint declaration, which did not contain any concrete measures or steps and was not expressly described as a binding treaty under international law, but which, in various phrases, invoked the need for rapprochement between the two Nato states. The statement agreed further discussions with a “results-oriented approach”. Athens and Ankara assure each other of their determination to promote “friendly relations, mutual respect” and peaceful coexistence. Conflicts should be resolved peacefully and in accordance with international law. The exploratory talks to resolve the Greek-Turkish territorial conflicts in the Aegean, which were suspended years ago, are to be resumed.
From a European perspective, the migration agenda item in the consultations is particularly relevant. Türkiye is one of the largest transit countries for migrants on their way to Europe, and the Eastern Mediterranean is the most frequented route for immigrants from the Near and Middle East. A migration agreement between the EU and Türkiye in 2016 has reduced the numbers, but is fragile.
In the previous “Kathimerini” interview, Erdoğan called for further support from Brussels – and warned that the causes of flight must first and foremost be combated: an “even distribution of burdens and responsibilities” is necessary “to prevent migration at its source”.
Later they stood in front of the press, the Turkish president and the Greek prime minister, both confirmed in office this year. The journalists were not allowed to ask questions; the day was supposed to remain trouble-free. Mitsotakis said he felt “a historic debt to bring the two countries together.” Erdoğan and he must behave like “captains who lead their ships into calmer waters.” Erdoğan also came up with a metaphor. Greeks and Turks are “like siblings” and conflicts sometimes arise, which is completely normal. But Turks and Greeks have “a culture” in common; he sees nothing “that cannot be solved as long as we are of good will.” The aim is to double the trading volume, said Erdoğan. And Mitsotakis accommodated him on a point that Erdoğan can sell at home: Turkish citizens should be allowed to travel to Greek islands off Türkiye for seven days without a visa. Those islands that Erdoğan had threatened with the navy at the time. Turks will soon conquer Rhodes and Kos, but as tourists, not as soldiers.
The tensions between Türkiye and Greece are Nato’s weak point on its southeastern flank – because they repeatedly threaten to escalate into a full-scale conflict. In order to control migration into the EU, a productive relationship between neighboring countries is also needed. After years of ice age, Athens and Ankara now seem to be serious about restarting. This development, if it continues, will have an impact on Nato, the EU – and Germany.
The saber rattling of the past few months is risky for Nato, because although neither Ankara nor Athens are interested in war, in tense times the slightest misunderstanding or miscalculation can lead to the situation escalating. The source of unrest in the eastern Mediterranean could push Nato to its limits in a very short time – which is why resolving the dispute would benefit the alliance.
First, Türkiye and Greece will expand their cooperation on migration issues at an operational and technical level, for example through the exchange of officials from the respective coast guards. Both sides must have a realistic picture of what the other can achieve. The partnership must be “built slowly to avoid the other side – in this case Turkey – being able to use dependence as leverage,” she says.
Despite the positive signs at the Athens summit, the fundamental problems, be it the territorial dispute or irregular migration, are far from being solved. This will take time and long-term political will on both sides. A renewed escalation in the coming years is by no means ruled out. Nationalist rhetoric is well received by many voters in Turkey – but also in Greece.
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