During the Iranian attack on Israel, the role played by militias inside Iraq in executing Iranian agendas and targeting the enemies of the Mullah regime in the Middle East, especially Israel and US forces in the region, became clear. These strikes also revealed the deep infiltration of the Mullah regime into Iraqi society, especially amidst demands for the withdrawal of US forces from Iraqi territory. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei urged Iraq to play a “special role” and coordinate with Iran to politically pressure the United States and Israel to halt the war in Gaza. Since its war with Iraq forty years ago, Iran has transformed sharp tensions with its neighbor into broad influence, making it today Baghdad’s top trading partner.
Iraq has been on a razor’s edge in recent weeks, with the intensification of the war in Gaza, as attacks by Iranian-backed armed groups against US forces in Syria and Iraq resumed, alongside demands from Iraqi political factions to sever diplomatic ties between Baghdad and Washington. Khamenei said during a meeting with the Iraqi Prime Minister in November 2023, attended by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and several Iraqi and Iranian officials, that “Iraq is an important country in the region and can play a special role in political pressure from Islamic countries on America and the Zionist entity to stop the massacres in Gaza, and to create a new path in the Arab and Islamic worlds in this regard.” He added in the same context, „the Islamic Republic of Iran and Iraq can coordinate together to play an influential role,” expressing his satisfaction with “the good and strong positions of Iraq, both the people and the government” in supporting the people of Gaza. Khamenei reiterated accusations against the United States, saying „all evidence indicates that America is directly involved in managing the war, from the early days of Zionist entity attacks.” He added, „evidence of the actual American role in directing Zionist entity crimes becomes stronger and clearer as this war continues.” Meanwhile, the Iraqi Prime Minister’s office said in a statement that the meeting focused on the Prime Minister’s affirmation that Iraq “is exerting its utmost effort to communicate with sisterly and friendly countries in order to coordinate positions and actions to limit the ongoing aggression against the Palestinian people and to allow the passage of humanitarian aid convoys.”
A cautious British report warned that Iran might regain control over Iraq again, after exhausting it with crises and political conflicts that would harm Iraqis and open the door to increased Iranian influence. The US Department of Defense, for the first time openly revealed in a new report published at the end of last year 2023 that Iranian militias opposed to the United States in Iraq have extensive influence within Iraqi security apparatuses and have long benefited from US taxpayer funds. The Pentagon’s Inspector General informed Congress in a new report on US military operations in the region that “Iran and its allied militias still maintain strong relationships with some elements of the traditional Iraqi security forces (…) especially the Iraqi Federal Police and Emergency Response Forces, overseen by the Iraqi Ministry of Interior, as well as the fifth and eighth divisions of the Iraqi Army, believed to have the greatest Iranian influence. (…) „However, officers sympathetic to Iranian interests or militias are spread throughout the security apparatus.”
Although Iran’s influence has been an open secret for decades, the US Department of Defense continued to provide funding to the Iraqi Ministry of Interior, which absorbed the Badr Corps into its ranks, a paramilitary force established by Iran and integrated into Iraq’s security apparatus after the US invasion of the country in 2003. The prominent presence of the Badr Corps in Iraqi security forces has long been a concern for hawks in Congress, but the Pentagon’s first public acknowledgment of their power renewed calls for the Biden administration to cut off funding to the Iraqi Ministry of Interior and classify the Badr Corps as a terrorist group due to its relations with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
At the end of last year, a report was published about the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq announcing the formation of the “North Baghdad Brigade,” linked to the General Secretariat and covering a vast area from Tarmiyah to the borders of Samarra province, spanning 100 kilometers. Iranian influence is evident, especially in the close ties between Tehran and the Popular Mobilization Forces, a coalition of armed Shiite factions integrated into the official forces after the war against the Islamic State and now playing a fundamental political role. According to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s strategy adopted by former Quds Force commander General Qasem Soleimani in Iraq, the formation of new factions and brigades affiliated with the Popular Mobilization is a means to expand military influence, with Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who was killed alongside Soleimani, considered the spiritual father of most armed Iraqi factions. With a pro-Iranian figure at the helm, Iran will not hesitate to exploit the opportunity and expand its influence through its military arm, the Popular Mobilization. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani spent much of his political life under Nouri al-Maliki, the former Prime Minister close to Tehran. Iran International Network quoted a commander in the Popular Mobilization as saying that the “North Baghdad Brigade” is a new organization in terms of equipment and leadership, with armed factions such as the Al-Nujaba Movement and Kata’ib Hezbollah present. Armed Shiite groups supported by Iran, such as the Badr Organization, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, and Kata’ib Hezbollah, form the backbone of the Popular Mobilization Forces.
Former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein invaded Iran on September 22, 1980, out of concern that the clerics who came to power in Tehran in 1979 would replicate their Islamic revolution in Iraq. Throughout the years of the longest wars of the twentieth century, which left about a million dead, Iran provided a haven for groups opposed to Saddam’s regime, including Kurdish figures and the “Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution” and its military wing, the Badr Corps, formed in Iran in 1982. Iran did not cease supporting these parties until Saddam Hussein fell in 2003. Iraqi figures that have long allied with Iran over the past 17 years have risen to the top of power in Iraq. While trade was prohibited during Saddam’s regime, Iranian goods were smuggled across the shared border, 1,600 kilometers long, under the economic blockade imposed on Iraq in the 1990s. As Iraq sought to rebuild itself after the infrastructure damage caused by the US-led invasion, cheap Iranian construction materials became the preferred choice. Trade expanded to include food, medicine, and vehicles, reaching the import of electricity today. As a result, Iraq has become the largest non-hydrocarbon market for Iranian products, with Iranian exports reaching nine billion dollars in 2022. Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani pledged to double this figure. However, the strict US economic sanctions imposed on Iran in 2018 led to economic deterioration and increasingly forced Tehran to rely on Iraq, which has become an economic lung.
Iranian-backed Shiite militias played a role in the Iraqi political scene, with some militias having ties to political parties. This influence affected political dynamics and power structures within the country. The presence of Iranian proxies exacerbated sectarian tensions, especially between Shiite communities and Kurds and Sunnis. Iranian influence was a factor in exacerbating sectarian tensions, with some Shiite militias viewed as representing Iranian interests rather than Iraqi state interests. These sometimes led to violence and minority displacement, contributing to creating a complex and fragile security environment. The activities of Iranian proxies in Iraq have affected regional relations, with neighboring countries expressing concerns about Iran’s influence and its potential impact on regional stability. Attacks on US forces by Iranian proxies in Iraq could lead to a significant escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran. This escalation could extend beyond Iraq and affect the broader regional security environment. The increasing violence involving Iranian proxies and US forces could contribute to political instability in Iraq. The Iraqi government may face difficulties in maintaining control and addressing the concerns of various factions.
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