In recent years, many countries have witnessed a significant increase in what is known as “lone wolf” terrorism. These terrorist attacks follow a similar pattern, where the perpetrators become radicalized through the internet and try to justify their crimes with extremist rhetoric. Most of them belong to either the far-right or extremist Islamist groups.
This phenomenon has now become global, as seen in the attack that took place in Christchurch, New Zealand. There, a far-right extremist attacker killed 51 people in a mosque and injured 50 others. The attack followed the same pattern as the 2016 shooting at the Olympia shopping center in Munich. “Lone wolves” often connect with influential figures online, become radicalized through anonymous internet forums, and their attacks are constantly evolving—from live-streaming the incidents to including game-like reward systems.
Lone actors pose a nightmare for security authorities around the world, especially in Western countries. Studies by the Institute for Economics and Peace indicate their numbers are increasing, and 60 percent of these attacks were carried out by individuals with no direct connection to extremist groups or far-right networks. As for terrorism linked to Islamist organizations, just a week after the terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall event center in northwest Moscow—which ISIS claimed responsibility for in March 2024—the group’s spokesperson, Abu Hudhayfah al-Ansari, announced further attacks and specifically called on “lone wolves” to act.
This study explores the phenomenon of lone wolves and their growing threat worldwide, as well as the way dangerous ideas spread online, turning individuals into extremists and terrorists. It also discusses methods of combating this trend and reducing its impact on vulnerable groups.
Lone wolf operations are mainly concentrated in Western Europe, the United States, Russia, Australia, and the Middle East, due to political and ideological factors and the availability of tools needed to carry out attacks. In Europe, such attacks have increased as a result of rising right-wing and Islamist extremism, anti-immigration rhetoric, and the difficulty of monitoring radicalized individuals due to privacy laws.
In the United States, the ease of access to firearms and the spread of extremist ideologies via the internet contribute to the rise of this phenomenon. In Russia and Central Asia, despite strict security policies, terrorist groups like ISIS (Khorasan branch) have led to the emergence of lone extremists.
In Australia and New Zealand, far-right movements have grown, leading to attacks such as the Christchurch shooting. In the Middle East, conflicts and civil wars have fueled the spread of extremist ideologies and driven individuals to carry out lone attacks. This phenomenon is closely linked to the influence of social media, political tensions, and the desire for media attention, which makes it a complex security challenge to address.
The danger of these attacks lies in their unpredictability. For example, the Afghan attacker Suleiman A., who targeted a far-right individual in Germany, is said to have become a radical Islamist in recent years. He appears to have been influenced by jihadist propaganda and deliberately attacked Islamic critic Michael Stürzenberger. The 25-year-old Afghan stabbed several people in a frenzy. Police officer Ruwen L. was stabbed in the neck from behind and had no chance of survival. According to FOCUS Online, security sources found no links to terrorist organizations such as the “Islamic State” (IS).
In the United States, Shamsuddin Jabbar, a former U.S. Army soldier with no known prior links to extremist networks, carried out a terrorist attack in New Orleans that left at least 15 dead and dozens injured. Jabbar, who was killed in a shootout with police, was a lone-wolf terrorist who pledged allegiance to ISIS in videos posted online just hours before the attack, according to the FBI. This attack was the deadliest ISIS-inspired assault on U.S. soil since the Orlando nightclub shooting in 2016, which left 49 people dead.
Unlike coordinated terrorist cells, lone wolves like Jabbar operate independently, often inspired by extremist propaganda spread online. This method of lone-wolf action poses a major challenge to traditional counterterrorism strategies, which largely rely on infiltrating networks and intercepting communications.
Lone offenders typically use “easily accessible” methods such as vehicle ramming, bladed weapons, or firearms to inflict mass casualties. On December 6, 2024, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, the FBI, and the National Counterterrorism Center issued a bulletin warning law enforcement agencies of potential lone-wolf attacks during the holiday season. Despite these warnings, the New Orleans tragedy could not be prevented.
After its territorial defeat in 2019, ISIS shifted its focus to the digital realm, creating what counterterrorism experts describe as a “digital caliphate.” This online network uses social media, encrypted messaging apps, and dark web platforms to recruit individuals, spread propaganda, and provide tactical guidance for attacks.
Jabbar was a veteran of the U.S. Army and had no known prior ties to extremist networks. According to authorities, his radicalization appeared to occur relatively quickly and was likely driven by personal grievances. This pattern reflects recent cases in which individuals turned to extremist ideologies as a means of finding purpose or expressing anger. ISIS-K (Islamic State Khorasan), the Central Asian branch of ISIS, has been particularly effective in exploiting online platforms to radicalize individuals.
Stages of Radicalization
According to numerous studies, the path to terrorism typically follows a systematic process over time. The decision to commit a violent act, such as a bombing, usually begins with a personal crisis or grievance—a perception of unjust suffering. For terrorists, this grievance may be directed at an individual, an organization, or a government entity they believe has wronged them. After identifying the perceived source of injustice, the individual may begin seeking a solution.
According to the FBI’s Behavioral Analysis Unit (BAU), there are a few general motivations behind targeted mass violence. For example, an extremist’s motivation may include a quest for justice, a desire for fame, or the need to resolve an unbearable personal problem.
While domestic terrorism is often driven by religious, ideological, or political goals, what distinguishes lone-wolf terrorism is the unique combination of perpetrator, target, and location. Individual radicalization typically occurs in four stages, often over a period of weeks or months.
Stage One: Exposure to Extremist Ideology
This is the initial stage when an individual is exposed to extremist ideas—often through members of terrorist groups. The internet, friends, and even family can play a role. The individual begins to feel alienated or detached from their country or society. A triggering event—such as the death of a loved one, loss of a job, or another life-altering moment—can spark this entry into radicalization.
Without a support system, the individual may seek comfort elsewhere—often turning to online chat rooms and forums where like-minded individuals gather. Once the person identifies a grievance and finds no solution, they may enter the ideation phase—believing violence is the only acceptable solution. At this stage, the individual might become obsessed with past attacks or extremist beliefs and glorify past attackers.
Stage Two: Embracing Extremist Ideology
In this phase, the person begins accepting extremist ideology after repeated exposure over months. They start seeing how this ideology aligns with their own beliefs and circumstances. The individual begins to view themselves as a victim and believes violence is a heroic response to perceived injustice.
Stage Three: Acceptance of Violence
This is when the person begins expressing extremist views and showing intent to commit a crime. They move beyond consuming radical material to advocating for violence and expressing violently extremist beliefs. They may start researching targets, planning when and how to attack, choosing locations, acquiring weapons, surveilling specific groups or places, and even taking photos of potential targets.
Stage Four: Preparation and Execution
In this final stage, the person transitions from planning to actively preparing for an attack. They may undergo training sessions (like target shooting) or take classes to build skills (like firearms training). For example, before the September 11 attacks, many of the hijackers had received flight training in Florida.
Often, the potential terrorist purchases weapons, ammunition, and other equipment in large quantities. This stage may also involve rehearsals or dry runs—such as driving from their home to the intended attack site. Avoiding security measures at the target location is also a focus during this phase.
Additional site surveillance and field rehearsals may take place days or even weeks before the attack. At this point, the attack is imminent. This stage typically includes writing farewell letters, statements, or plans for ending one’s life. By this stage, the radicalized individual is mentally prepared to carry out the attack.
If obstacles arise, the attacker may return to the planning phase. But once a person is psychologically committed to terrorist violence—or sufficiently indoctrinated by a terrorist group—nothing is likely to stop them. The attack could be hours, months, or even years away. However, in the fourth stage, the intent is firm.
Lone-wolf terrorists often feel a strong need to publicize their beliefs and intentions. Studies show that 76% of perpetrators disclosed their plans involving violent extremism, most doing so more than once. They used text messages, social media posts, emails, and even podcasts to share their intentions.
Researchers have identified six personality types prone to radicalization:
- Thrill seekers – attracted to violence as a form of rebellion.
- Political believers – driven by strong political ideologies.
- Socially marginalized – angered by perceived social or economic injustice.
- Social followers – influenced by peer pressure to join extremist groups.
- Ideologically indoctrinated – drawn to extremist ideas online.
- Traditionally conservative – raised in extremist environments and ideologies.
Understanding the various stages of radicalization and the reasons people fall into ideological indoctrination can help law enforcement and communities develop strategies to prevent terrorism and stop attacks in their early stages.
Methods for Countering Lone-Wolf Terrorism
The internet is considered one of the most crucial tools in combating this phenomenon. The continued presence of terrorist content online poses a serious threat to the safety of citizens and society as a whole. Terrorists exploit the internet to disseminate their messages aimed at intimidation, radicalization, recruitment, and facilitating the execution of terrorist attacks.
Algorithms have the capacity to promote and spread extremism. Therefore, adopting a multifaceted approach that combines technology, innovation, and regulatory controls is essential to combat radicalization. Algorithms are the cornerstone in content distribution and in increasing user engagement on social media platforms. Although these systems are designed to improve the user experience, they often inadvertently amplify extremist propaganda and polarizing narratives. This amplification contributes to worsening societal divisions, spreading misinformation, and increasing the influence of extremist groups. This phenomenon is known as “algorithmic radicalization”, a process that pushes users toward adopting extremist views through a selective model of content filtering.
Hashtags play a major role in this context, as they are used as keys to categorize content, making it easier to discover by a wider audience. When a post is linked to a trending hashtag, the algorithm gives it higher priority, allowing it to spread rapidly.
Extremist groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda have taken advantage of these platforms to spread their propaganda and recruit individuals. For example, ISIS uses X (formerly Twitter) and Telegram to broadcast emotional messages aimed at attracting recruits, while al-Qaeda uses YouTube to publish training sermons and embed encrypted links. On the other hand, TikTok is used by far-right extremist groups to spread content targeting users and guiding them through algorithmic paths that reinforce extremist ideologies. These extremists rely on strategies that align with algorithmic mechanisms, which prioritize emotional content, thereby creating so-called “filter bubbles”, which trap users in specific ideological circles that reinforce their extremist beliefs.
Balancing freedom of expression with effective content regulation is a complex matter. For instance, in Germany, the NetzDG law obliges social media platforms to remove harmful content within a short period. However, extremist groups exploit legal loopholes by crafting content that does not directly violate laws, enabling them to continue spreading their ideologies.
Therefore, it is recommended that the relevant authorities conduct regular algorithm reviews to ensure transparency and fairness. For example, the European Digital Services Act (2023) requires social media platforms to disclose how their algorithms operate and allows independent researchers to assess their impact.
Clear laws can also be enacted to hold algorithms accountable, including imposing penalties on platforms that fail to limit the spread of harmful content. The German NetzDG law, which imposes fines on companies that do not delete illegal content within 24 hours, has led to the adoption of similar laws in other European countries.
Some countries resort to organizing public awareness campaigns to help users recognize extremist propaganda and avoid engaging with it. For example, the Online Safety Bill in the United Kingdom includes educational initiatives aimed at enhancing digital awareness.
Thus, it has become essential for governments, technology companies, and civil society to collaborate in ensuring a safer digital environment. Public-private partnerships are key to combating extremist content.
Conclusions
- The phenomenon of “lone wolves” is expected to become more complex due to several factors, most notably technological development and the spread of artificial intelligence. Extremists may leverage modern technologies for planning, communication, and promoting their ideologies, making them harder to trace.
- At the same time, counter-terrorism strategies will grow more sophisticated. However, the main challenge lies in distinguishing between individuals who express extremist views and those who have actual intentions to carry out attacks. Additionally, increasing political and social tensions—such as racism, Islamophobia, and regional conflicts—could create a fertile environment for the emergence of more lone attackers who feel marginalized or seek revenge.
- The future of this phenomenon depends on how successful governments and societies are in raising awareness, addressing the root causes of radicalization, and developing more precise security strategies.
