It was the lowest voter turnout since the founding of the Islamic Republic 45 years ago: the Fars news agency put it at 40.6 percent – two percentage points lower than the previous low four years ago. No other numbers were released on election day. The state news agency “Mehr” announced a stake of 24 percent for the capital Tehran. However, the numbers include the invalid votes, which were apparently particularly numerous this time.
Ayatollah Khomeini, the first Supreme Leader, persecuted his opponents with similar brutality as his heirs who are in power today. Nevertheless, he wanted his Islamic Republic to be legitimized through elections. There was no more talk of that on election day. Even in the media loyal to the regime, the parliamentary election did not play a major role. As always in recent months, the focus was on the war in the Gaza Strip.
Even incumbent President Raisi flew to a summit of gas exporting states in Algeria immediately after voting – even though he himself was applying for a seat on the Council of Experts. In these times, foreign policy obviously takes priority; after all, Iran has been in a shadow war with Israel and the United States since October 7. Even though the regime recently ordered allied militias in Iraq to stop attacks on US facilities.
What is happening in the region is likely to make the mullahs a lot more nervous than the results of the parliamentary elections. Legitimacy through voting? This has been over since the protests 2022 at the latest. The hardliners are leading the way. Hardly anyone among the people believes in change through elections or in reforms as long as the clerics are in power. It should be clear to them that they are ruling in opposition to their people.
The regime therefore made little effort to excuse the low voter turnout. It was a success, they said, and a defeat for those who had called for a boycott. Meanwhile, news agencies reported that the counting was underway and that it was gradually becoming clear who had won. That caused little tension. More interesting was the news that even the winners performed poorly. In many provinces only one option was popular – the invalid ballot.
Images and eyewitness accounts of empty polling stations suggest that the actual number was even lower. The opposition based abroad also assumes this. The “National Resistance Council” announced that they had calculated a single-digit turnout.
Election analyzes in Tehran have shown that more invalid votes were cast in the capital than votes for the first-place candidate. Apparently those who did not dare to stay away out of fear of disadvantages voted invalid. In the city of Yazd, there were more invalid votes than votes for the runner-up. Many opposition members fundamentally doubt the reliability of the numbers. There are no independent election observers or survey institutes in Iran. Voter turnout is traditionally higher in rural regions because it is often a question of which influential families can bring state projects to the province.
For the mullahs, even their own numbers are not good news. In the previous elections four years ago, they were able to blame the pandemic for the low turnout. This time it was more difficult to come up with a plausible explanation. The leadership therefore promoted the elections partly with requests and partly with promises, such as the one that police officers who went to vote would be given four days of special leave. The regime also tried to intimidate the population. Dozens of people who are said to have called for a boycott were arrested. In the previous parliamentary election in 2020, participation reached a historic low of almost 43 percent. Back then, too, the population was angry about the brutal crackdown by the security forces against demonstrators and about the unpunished shooting down of a civilian aircraft by the Revolutionary Guard. In the 2021 presidential election, all serious competitors of Khamenei’s preferred candidate, Ebrahim Raisi, were disqualified. That in itself was an indication that the revolutionary leader did not want to leave the selection of his successor to chance and was prepared to accept further damage to his reputation.
President Ebrahim Raisi tried to sell the vote as a success. “Those who wish ill upon our beloved country have done everything in their power to make our election on March 1 appear lackluster,” he declared. The people still went to vote and rejected the “global arrogance”, meaning the influence of the USA.
As is usual in a dictatorship, the state-controlled media proclaimed Raisi the big election winner. He ran again for the Council of Experts, of which he has been a member since 2007. The clerical body is officially tasked with choosing his successor after the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Never before had a candidate been elected to the Council of Experts with such a high majority as Raisi, they cheered. In reality, all of Raisi’s opponents were initially disqualified. To keep up appearances, an unknown candidate from another constituency was later nominated, who said of himself, “I am not running to get votes, but to ignite enthusiasm for the elections.” He also said he had done his “duty” by running for office. Raisi is considered a possible candidate to succeed Khamenei.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also praised the supposedly “broad voter turnout.” The Iranians were unimpressed by the enemy’s “cognitive warfare to reduce participation.” However, Ghalibaf was one of the biggest losers of the election, even if he returned to parliament. Since he is one of Khamenei’s most loyal protégés, it was previously expected that he would hold the office again. After his poor performance, his chances have decreased. The position of parliamentary speaker is important because he is automatically represented in other bodies such as the National Security Council and the Economic Coordination Council. Ghalibaf was formerly head of the Revolutionary Guard’s air force. He is an example of the Guard’s great influence in parliament, which now exceeds that of the clergy. The previous speaker of parliament is also associated with numerous corruption scandals. Most recently, opposition media reported on his son’s efforts to get permanent residency in Canada. Ghalibaf’s poor performance was also due to the fact that even more radical hardliners overtook him. The highest share of votes in Tehran went to a candidate who accused former President Hassan Rouhani of collaborating with America in the killing of Quds Commander Qasem Soleimani. Anti-Western sentiment is likely to gain even more of the upper hand in the new parliament.
One of the most prominent non-voters was former President Mohammad Khatami, who was absent from a vote for the first time. To this day he is the most important symbolic figure of the so-called reformers. He was sharply criticized for his election boycott by the Tasnim news agency, which is close to the Revolutionary Guard. Khatami had thereby irreparably damaged his reputation, she wrote.
Ahmad Khomeini, the great-grandson of the republic’s founder Ruhollah Khomeini, also opposed the official narrative of the supposedly successful election. At a polling station, he told reporters that he could see no enthusiasm for the elections or hope for change among his friends and peers. This is also because previous hopes for change have not been fulfilled. Even the family of the first revolutionary leader has been among the incumbent’s most prominent critics for years. The Khomeinis have openly sided with the “reformers”. Ahmad’s father Hassan Khomeini was subsequently disqualified as a candidate for the Council of Experts in 2016. Since then, his opportunities to become politically active have been limited. He is only allowed to speak out once a year: in a speech on the anniversary of the death of the republic’s founder.
Well-known activists had called for a boycott of the sham election. Imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi said on her Instagram account that a boycott was a “moral duty” to demonstrate the “illegitimacy” of the regime. However, there is no sign of a coordinated opposition campaign aimed at using the elections to breathe new life into the protest movement.
In the “reformers” camp, who have lost a lot of support among the population, there are only isolated calls for a boycott. Otherwise there is helplessness. “If they had seriously done something to make society feel that parliament was important, that would help,” says Abtahi, a former deputy to reformist President Khatami (1997 to 2005).
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