On January 28, the military observation tower “T22” was targeted by marches in the far northeast of Jordan near the international coalition base in the Syrian Tanf region at the Iraqi-Syrian-Jordanian border triangle, which resulted in the killing of US army members.
Since this moment and before, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has not left any occasion to demand the need for the exit of US troops from Iraqi territory, especially after the recent increasing attacks.
Meanwhile, voices have been calling inside the country for years for the withdrawal of those forces following the October 7 attacks launched by Hamas on Israel, and the subsequent devastating war waged by Israel in the Gaza Strip, saying that it aims to eliminate the movement.
The US-led international coalition forces in Iraq and Syria have been subjected to repeated attacks by Iranian-backed armed groups in response to the Israeli attack on Gaza and the corresponding American response.
“Let’s agree on a time frame for withdrawal that is fast so as not to prolong the presence and the attacks continue,” al-Sudani said in a press interview, noting that the only way to avoid a regional escalation is to stop the war in Gaza.
The international coalition forces that returned again in 2014, following their exit in 2011, following the request made by the then Iraqi government for the return of troops in order to confront the Daesh terrorist organization in the country.
The first objective of these forces was to train the Iraqi army, provide military advice to it, and the necessary support to the forces in their fight against the Daesh terrorist organization.
Washington has kept about 2,500 troops in Iraq, even after the end of the IS’s quest to establish an Islamic caliphate in 2019. By the end of 2021, US combat operations in Iraq officially ended, and the task of its troops there became to provide advice and assistance to Iraqi troops.
Observers rule out that the series of successive attacks on US forces, which caused dozens of injuries, mostly light among US military personnel and employees, will lead to Washington to withdraw it from Iraq, considering that, on the contrary, it will push towards strengthening and expanding the American presence.
Experts point out that the presence of these forces are legal and in accordance with partnership agreements between Baghdad and Washington, making targeting them a threat primarily to Iraq’s security, interests and international obligations.
In January, Reuters quoted several sources as saying that the United States expressed its readiness to start talks in a letter delivered by its ambassador to Iraq Alina Romanovsky to Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein.
It seems that the negotiations that will take place between Baghdad and Washington will focus on the consequences of the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq in light of data indicating the activity of terrorist organizations in both Iraq and Syria, as well as the economic problems that will cast a shadow on Iraq.
Political observers rule out that Washington will decide for a rapid withdrawal of its troops from Iraq, especially since negotiations may take a long time.
While others believe that the continued presence of US forces in Iraq and Syria makes them exposed to a constant threat. Since October 7 last year, US forces have been subjected to dozens of attacks in Iraq.
And about the losing parties from a possible American withdrawal, it could be the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq and the Iraqi Sunnis.
Some experts have suggested that Iran will be the strongest winner and the militias supporting it as a result of the US withdrawal from Iraq at the moment.
Among the most prominent American interests in maintaining its troops in Iraq, according to what has been published in many sources, “maintaining friendly relations with Iraq, countering Iranian influence, and preventing Iran from exploiting Iraqi oil”. Pollock adds that the withdrawal of US troops “creates additional threats to Israel’s security, and that” all GCC countries see US troops in Iraq as the basis for the US military units they host on their territory, and a vital factor in their defense against Iran.
It is noteworthy that the United States exempted Iraq from the sanctions imposed on Tehran, allowing it to buy electricity from Iran.
From the military side, Iraq remains a relatively weak military force at the moment, after years of war in front of US forces and the terrorist organization ISIS, in the face of any possible internal threat from terrorist organizations.
This comes in conjunction with the continuation of the US-Iranian conflict on Iraqi territory, and the resulting attacks on Iraqi territory.
Iraq ranked eighth in the list of the top 10 countries that imported weapons between 2014 and 2018, according to Sibri data, which indicated that estimates of military expenditures depend on “official data, while spending on paramilitary forces is not included”.
After the defeat of ISIS, arms imports began to decline since 2018, and the Iraqi government announced plans for acquisitions of deployed weapons, with an estimated 4.2 million small arms in the hands of civilians or informal armed groups.
There are about 2,500 US troops in Iraq, while about 900 US troops are deployed in Syria, as part of the international coalition launched by Washington in 2014.
Ironically, moving the majority of U.S. troops out of Iraq could put Washington in a better position toward the Iranian-dominated Iraqi government – especially if the troops stay in Kurdistan, where the US is still welcome.
Washington fears that a rapid withdrawal could leave a security vacuum that could be filled by Iran or ISIS, which maintains sleeper cells in desert areas and continues to launch limited attacks despite not controlling any area, Reuters reports.
Twenty years after the invasion of Iraq, it may be necessary for the Biden administration to start thinking about how to best reduce the US military footprint in Iraq. The United States is not using its presence in Iraq to respond to the expansion of Iranian influence in Baghdad or to cut Tehran’s line of communication with its Hezbollah militia in Lebanon.
While U.S. forces in Iraqi Kurdistan act as a critical node of logistical support for anti-ISIS forces in Syria, this presence may also no longer be necessary if Washington withdraws its small military contingent from Syria.
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