The Saudis and the Americans… a complicated relationship lately. Washington is trying by all means to elevate its contacts with Riyadh to a new level. Just recently, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan visited the desert kingdom to discuss sensitive topics like a civilian nuclear program and a defense agreement with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Diplomats announced that significant agreement had been reached on major issues, sounding quite euphoric at times.
An agreement between the USA and Saudi Arabia would be such a significant step that it seemed unimaginable just a few years ago. US President Joe Biden had labeled the country a pariah following the 2019 murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and had initially focused on the Asian region during his term. Disappointed, Saudi Arabia turned away, seeking contact with China, which later even brokered a rapprochement with their arch-enemy Iran.
An increasing fear of losing influence in the Middle East to the Chinese prompted the Americans to rethink. In a pact with Washington, Saudi Arabia is to be allowed to develop a civilian nuclear program, receive security guarantees, and gain access to modern weapons and artificial intelligence. But even the most optimistic in the US government have to admit that the deal is missing a third partner, without whom it won’t work: the agreement only makes sense together with the Israelis.
Biden’s major goal is to persuade Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel for the first time, in return for the kingdom being under the US security umbrella again. Even before October 7, it seemed the agreement was imminent, but Hamas terror changed everything. One of the motives of the terrorist group was likely to end the ever-advancing normalization between Israel and much of the Arab world, which had ignored the Palestinian issue.
Even before Hamas’ terror and Israel’s counterattack, rapprochement with Israel was an elite project of the Crown Prince. He wanted to create a stable political environment for his country’s development away from oil – while 98 percent of the population opposed the rapprochement, according to surveys. This number has likely increased since Israel’s devastating war against Gaza and the Palestinians. Thus, the price of the agreement has become entirely different.
Before the war, the Crown Prince vaguely spoke of improvements for the Palestinians; now he makes “a two-state solution that meets the aspirations and legitimate rights of the Palestinian people” a condition. This demand, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected, makes the Saudis much less euphoric than the Americans. Photos of the meeting with the US Security Advisor were not published in state media, and a press release soberly mentioned that the “half-finished version of a draft” was discussed with the guest.
In reality, the trilateral agreement seems less than half-finished. A Palestinian state is far off; not even the end of the war and a vague perspective for Gaza’s reconstruction are in sight. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sees his goal of retaining power coming closer with each passing day of war. Benny Gantz, the opposition leader in Israel, called for a post-war plan for Gaza and further rapprochement with Saudi Arabia. But he also did not speak of a state for the Palestinians, which the majority of the Israeli population currently rejects just as much as Netanyahu does.
The political leadership of most countries from Egypt to the Gulf has little to do with Hamas, but the mood among the populace is often quite different. It took the Arab League six months to reconvene since November regarding Gaza. In Bahrain, it recently called for a peacekeeping force under UN supervision, which Netanyahu will again reject. Since an arrest warrant has been issued against him by the International Criminal Court, he is even less likely to cooperate with international organizations, which he views as conspiring against Israel.
All publishing rights and copyrights reserved to MENA Research Center.
