The Tunisian Electoral Authority announced that President Kais Saied won with over 2.43 million votes out of more than 2.8 million voters, translating to 90.69% of the votes. This means Saied will remain in power for another five-year term. His closest competitor, Ayachi Zmel, the head of the newly founded “Azmoun” party and currently imprisoned on charges related to electoral fraud—which he denies—received 7.35% of the votes. Meanwhile, Zouhair Maghzaoui, the secretary-general of the People’s Movement, a nationalist party, garnered less than 2% of the votes.
The opposition in Tunisia viewed Saied’s victory as expected, especially given the boycott campaign by many opposition parties, while Saied maintained his electoral base. The number of voters supporting Saied in the current presidential elections was close to the participation rate in the constitutional referendum he personally crafted in July 2022, which was around 30%, ruling out the possibility of electoral fraud in these presidential elections. Five leftist parties, which do not possess strong electoral bases, announced their boycott of the elections. However, a significant factor was the reluctance of the supporters of the more popular Ennahda Islamic Movement to vote for Saied’s rivals, similar to the supporters of the Free Constitutional Party, the successor to the former ruling party.
Opponents of President Saied were unconvinced by his high percentage of votes, believing he only held about 10% of the votes, or approximately 900,000. Some sarcastically remarked that Saied had become a replica of former president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who consistently won elections with over 90%. Their suspicion of electoral fraud was exacerbated by the publication of an opinion poll on state television after polling stations closed, which was close to the preliminary results. The opposition argued that the release of these results by a private company was an attempt to influence public opinion and push it to accept the election outcomes. They attributed Saied’s electoral victory to the “lack of awareness” among the general public regarding the deteriorating conditions, including shortages of essential goods, despite feeling their impact. Moreover, the voting patterns of the elderly, who turned out in large numbers citing Saied as “clean-handed,” contrasted with their declining trust in political parties.
It seems that opposition parties were somewhat disappointed with the results. They had anticipated that voters’ awareness of the deteriorating economic and social conditions would lead them to vote for one of the other candidates. However, despite the extensive impact of the economic crisis on wide social segments and the scarcity of some essential goods in the markets, Kais Saied managed to win due to the image of a “clean-handed” politician held by elderly voters. Some segments of Tunisians remain insistent on punishing political parties of all affiliations, holding them responsible for the state of affairs in Tunisia since the Arab Spring revolutions in 2011. When Kais Saied was elected president in 2019, he received 72.71% of the votes with a participation rate of 57.8%. Upon entering Carthage Palace, he enjoyed significant political and popular support, bringing with him optimism that this man from the cultural and intellectual sphere might stand out from previous politicians and find a remedy for Tunisia’s ailments following years of political stagnation since the 2011 revolution.
Tunisia is undergoing a severe economic crisis, marked by debts exceeding 80% of its GDP, a growth slowdown expected to be below 2% this year, and rising unemployment rates. Economic growth in 2023 reached about 0.4%, affected by an ongoing drought crisis for the past five years. The ratio of domestic and foreign debt approaches 80% of GDP. Last year, President Saied rejected a preliminary agreement with the International Monetary Fund for a new $2 billion loan, deeming the proposed reforms—such as restructuring state-owned enterprises and gradually lifting subsidies on certain essential products—as “impositions.” Tunisia, home to 12 million people, has faced rising inflation rates for two years, with food prices sometimes tripling, leading to a decline in the conditions of the working class and middle class.
Tourism and financial assistance from European countries concerned about immigration have helped Tunisia avoid the need for a harshly conditioned loan from the IMF. However, public finances still face challenges leading to shortages in imports of essential goods. Saied’s re-election came after he faced severe criticism throughout his first term from Tunisian and international human rights organizations, which observed a “power drift” in the country following a widespread campaign of arrests targeting a number of prominent figures, including potential challengers in the elections. After his election in 2019, Saied consolidated most powers in 2021 by dissolving the elected parliament, dismissing the government, and rewriting the constitution himself—steps that the opposition labeled as a coup.
